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Today: Mortgage rates hit 7.56% mid-week after inflation spiked to 3.7%, Fannie Mae revised its 2027 forecast to 7.5%, and ARM applications climbed to 10.5% as buyers hunt for payment relief.
Inflation rose to 3.7% year-over-year in September, well above the 3.6% forecast, with core inflation ticking back up to 2.6% from 2.4% in August. The 10-year Treasury yield jumped 11 basis points within 15 minutes of the CPI release. Mortgage rates responded immediately. Freddie Mac's 30-year fixed stood at 7.4% as of last week, up 74 basis points from 6.66% in late August. By mid-week, Mortgage News Daily reported rates at 7.56%.
Fannie Mae sharply revised its mortgage rate forecast upward, now projecting 7.4% for Q4 2026 and 7.5% through all of 2027, up from prior estimates of 6.8% and 6.7%. A December Fed rate hike is now considered a question of when, not if, following the hot CPI print. For Richland County buyers, a 74-basis-point rate increase translates to a 7.2% loss in purchasing power, or roughly $22,000 in home price on a $2,000 monthly principal and interest budget.
National active inventory climbed 6.8% year-over-year in the week ending October 10, the highest weekly growth rate since late February. Homes are accumulating, not turning over. Median days on market held at 61 days, flat with last year, but new listings fell 5.1% year-over-year, the steepest drop since winter. Median listing price fell to $415,000, down 2.3% year-over-year, the deepest weekly decline since late July. NAR existing home sales fell 2.2% year-over-year in September. Pending sales dropped 4.1% nationally, with new contract signings down 9.8%. In Richland County, this means buyers have more options and slightly more leverage, but mortgage rates remain the primary constraint. Watch for further rate volatility tied to Fed decisions and inflation data.
Realtor.com Weekly Housing Trends
Realtor.com CPI Report
CNBC Fannie Mae Forecast
Mortgage News Daily Rate Update
South Carolina recorded the nation's highest foreclosure filing rate in August. No Richland County-specific data was provided, but this signals opportunity for agents working with investors and distressed property buyers. Monitor local tax sales, REO inventory, and short sale listings as statewide foreclosure activity accelerates.
Rithm Capital closed a $375 million securitization of multifamily loans through its Genesis Capital subsidiary. This is Genesis' first multifamily-only CMBS deal since Rithm acquired the firm in 2021. Multifamily loan originations at Genesis rose from $160 million in Q1 2024 to $637 million in Q2 2026. While this is not a Midlands-specific transaction, it reflects continued institutional appetite for multifamily debt, which could support local developers seeking construction financing or permanent loans on apartment projects in Columbia's expanding submarkets.
National median asking rent for 0-2 bedroom units declined 0.4% year-over-year in September to $1,694, marking the 38th consecutive month of year-over-year rent declines. This is the slowest rate of decline since August 2023. Studio rent fell 1.0% to $1,422, one-bedroom rent fell 0.4% to $1,568, and two-bedroom rent fell 0.3% to $1,890. The share of rental listings offering concessions rose to 43.9%, up 1.3 percentage points year-over-year.
While these are national figures, the slowdown in rent declines suggests demand for rental properties remains firm, particularly as homeownership affordability worsens with higher mortgage rates. Columbia landlords should track local vacancy rates and tenant demand closely. If national trends hold locally, modest rent relief for tenants may continue, but concessions could become less aggressive as demand stabilizes.
GSEs are targeting income verification and occupancy fraud to reduce closing costs and repurchase risk. Fannie Mae launched an occupancy misrepresentation tool within Desktop Underwriter in September, designed to flag inconsistencies before closing. The tool is expected to capture about 20% of defects related to occupancy misrepresentation. Fannie Mae also rolled out an income calculator that has logged over 550,000 evaluations across 900 lenders, helping drive down defect rates related to borrower earnings.
Freddie Mac is testing an income calculator tool with select lenders over the past six months. Early results show cycle times almost 10 days lower and half the underwriting touches compared to loans without the tool. Both GSEs are also expanding appraisal waiver programs and title alternatives. Fannie Mae has processed roughly 5.4 million loans using alternative valuation methods, generating $3 billion in borrower savings through midyear. Freddie Mac delivered nearly $3 billion in savings since 2017 through its ACE appraisal waivers and ACE+ PDR options.
For Richland County agents, these tools mean faster closings and lower borrower costs on eligible loans. Confirm with your lender partners which GSE automation tools they support and how to position them with buyers.
ARM applications climbed to 10.5% of total applications, a one-year high, as buyers seek relief from 30-year fixed rates in the mid-7s. The average 5/1 ARM rate stood at 6.54%, a 0.86% spread below the 30-year fixed. On a $400,000 loan, that saves the borrower about $230 per month and nearly $14,000 over the five-year fixed phase. Refinance applications remain 56% lower than the same week last year. For buyers in Richland County who can manage the risk of rate adjustments after the initial fixed period, ARMs offer meaningful payment relief in this rate environment.