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Today: Mortgage rates sit at 7.48% after the 10-year Treasury yield held its 5.35% line last week, and mortgage spreads widened to 2.12%. CPI data and Fed speakers this week can break that level, so lock-in decisions for pending buyers cannot wait. The other three articles carry no Columbia-specific data.
Rates at 7.48%, and the 10-year yield is the line to watch. HousingWire's analysis says the 10-year yield (the benchmark Treasury rate that mortgage pricing follows) held at 5.35% last week, which stopped further rate escalation in October. A close above 5.35% with follow-through bond selling would push rates higher. This week's CPI (Consumer Price Index, the inflation gauge) release and Fed commentary are the triggers. Action: Buyers in Richland and Lexington counties who are within 30 days of closing should lock now rather than float. Run payment quotes at 7.48% and at 8.0% for any buyer with a thin debt-to-income margin, so you know who falls out if rates break higher. HousingWire
Mortgage spreads are the bigger story. The spread (the gap between the 10-year yield and the mortgage rate) rose to 2.12% from 1.98% the prior week. The historical range is 1.60% to 1.80%. The article estimates that at the worst spread levels of 2023, the rate would be 8.47% today; at 2024 worst levels, 8.09%; at 2025 worst levels, 7.90%. Action: Tell clients that rate relief will not come from Treasury yields alone. Spread compression is needed, and it is not happening yet. Do not promise refinance opportunities to buyers who stretch on payment today.
Inventory growth is tame, with a seasonal dip starting. Nationally, listings showed a slight weekly decline, and some weeks are down year over year. The article notes that inventory can grow faster when rates stay above 7%. I have no Richland County inventory figures in today's data, so check your MLS (Multiple Listing Service) active count and months of supply before advising sellers. Action: Sellers who list in the next few weeks face less competition from new listings than a typical fall. Price to the 7.48% payment reality, since buyer affordability is the constraint, not supply.
Geopolitical risk is driving the rate path. The article ties bond volatility to the stalled Iran-U.S. talks, which fell apart in July, and to escalation in the Middle East and between Ukraine and Russia. The author says October can set the housing baseline for the next 15 months. Action: Plan for rates staying at or above 7% through the midterms, and build your fall pipeline on that assumption.