Today: The average top-tier 30-year fixed fell to 7.48% on Oct. 9, a two-week low, but it is still far above the 6.75% seen in late August. NAHB's chief economist calls 7.5% the "new normal" until geopolitical issues resolve, so plan buyer consultations around that number. Builder orders are sliding as crew losses from immigration enforcement hit supply.
Market Pulse
- Rates at 7.48%, a two-week low, not a trend change. The average top-tier 30-year fixed edged below the 7.49% from Oct. 2, the lowest since Sept. 25. Rates were 6.75% at the end of August, so the move since then is roughly 73 basis points (bps; 1 bp = 0.01%). On a $300K loan, that gap is about $1,400 more per year in principal and interest for every 0.25% of rate, so buyers who qualified in August may no longer qualify. Re-run pre-approvals for any active buyer shopping in the Richland and Lexington price bands. (Mortgage News Daily)
- Bonds are chopping sideways at long-term highs. MBS (mortgage-backed securities) reversed a morning sell-off to close positive Friday, but yields have not broken lower. Lock-or-float calls: if a buyer's closing is within 30 days, lock. Floating on a two-week low is a bet, not a plan. (MBS recap, MBS morning)
- 7.5% is the planning assumption. MBA described rates as at a "nearly three year high" and NAHB's Robert Dietz says they hold until geopolitical issues resolve. Tell sellers not to price for a rate rescue this fall. Price to the current payment, not the 2025 payment. (NAHB podcast, RISMedia Mortgage Mix)
- Consumer sentiment fell to 46.3, a five-month low, down from 48.1 in September, with higher costs cited. Expect longer decision cycles and more price-reduction requests. Counsel sellers on pricing correctly at launch. (RISMedia)
- New construction is weakening. Ashton Woods net new orders fell 6.7% and gross margin dropped to 22.7% on incentives and land costs. Wolfe reports September net orders down 19.5% industry-wide, with some builders losing 60% to 80% of crews amid immigration enforcement. For Midlands buyers, expect builder rate buydowns and closing-cost credits to compete against your resale listings, and expect delivery delays. Verify construction timelines before writing contracts with rate-lock expirations. (Ashton Woods, Immigration and housing)
- Lender tools: TransUnion and Equifax launched "score later" workflows that let lenders pull credit files without scores and add them afterward. This is a cost-control feature for lenders. Ask your preferred lender whether they use it. (HousingWire)
Property Management & Rentals
- Investor interest is moving to landlord-friendly states. The WFTV piece covers what these states share, and South Carolina is commonly counted among them. With rates at 7.5%, buy-and-hold math is tight, so lead with cash flow over appreciation. Run every Columbia rental pitch at current rates and require positive cash flow after taxes, insurance, and reserves. (WFTV)
- Cash flow vs. appreciation. BiggerPockets frames the debate for 2027. At this rate level, cash flow wins for new Midlands acquisitions near USC and Fort Jackson, where rental demand is steady. (BiggerPockets)
Industry & Legal
- Brokerage consolidation. Compass International Holdings COO Sue Yannaccone says expectations differ after the Compass-Anywhere merger and tells brokers to "keep powder dry." If your brokerage is affiliated with Anywhere brands, expect policy and fee changes, and review your agreement now. (RISMedia, threats panel)
- Listing fraud tools. SmartMLS (Connecticut) is adding Property Shield fraud detection in mid-October. Ask the Columbia Regional MLS whether similar protection is planned, since vacant-land and rental listing scams are a recurring local risk. (RISMedia)
Data gaps: None of today's articles carried Richland or Lexington County inventory, median price, DOM (days on market), USC, or Fort Jackson data, and the Forbes South Carolina rate page had no content. Pull local figures from the MLS before client conversations. Deal Flow and Commercial sections are skipped; the commercial items (Northern Virginia, Orange County, Miami, Manhattan) have no Midlands relevance.