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Columbia, SC Real Estate Brief

2026-10-01

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Show Notes - 2026-10-01

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Directly Columbia-relevant: - Article 20: BGO surgery center portfolio includes Columbia, SC property - Article 25: Best places to retire in SC (headline only, no content)

Nationally relevant to frame locally: - Article 5: Pending home sales falling nationally, inventory/pricing trends - Article 8: Mortgage rate determinants (credit score, down payment) - Article 16: Mortgage rates hit 7.60%, new long-term high - Article 21: Weekly housing trends, active inventory up 6.3%, median listing price down 1.4% - Article 27: 10yr yield broke 5.30%, bonds selling off - Article 29: Core PCE inflation data - Article 17: Archwest $300M RTL securitization (fix-and-flip/bridge lending) - Article 18: RISMedia CEO Exchange, market normalization commentary - Article 19: Zillow's Samuelson on MLS transparency - Article 24: Tech trends shaping housing 2027 - Article 26: Construction job openings declining - Article 30: CertifID/Closinglock fraud prevention merger - Article 32: Super El Nino, SE weather implications - Article 33: CHLA backs GSE credit score disclosures - Article 34: Compass threatening MLS lawsuits over office exclusives - Article 7: Buying without an agent (post-NAR settlement)

Most articles are either about other geographic markets (New York, Miami, Provo, Nashville, Dallas) or international (Japan, New Zealand, Greece, Korea, Singapore). The building permit articles (1-4) have no Columbia content.

Here's the generated brief:


Today: Top-tier 30-year fixed rates hit 7.60%, another long-term high, as the 10-year Treasury briefly broke 5.30%. National pending sales dropped 9% year over year with 42.5% of active listings carrying price cuts. BGO closed on a surgery center portfolio that includes a Columbia, SC property, signaling institutional appetite for Midlands medical real estate.


Market Pulse

Rates keep climbing with no relief in sight. Top-tier 30-year fixed rates jumped to 7.60% on September 30, yet another long-term high. The 10-year Treasury briefly broke 5.30%. Core PCE inflation came in at 3.0% year over year, but the drop from 3.3% was almost entirely due to methodology changes, not actual price cooling. GDP revised up to 2.2%. The bond market sees no reason to rally, and mortgage rates won't fall meaningfully without weaker economic data, lower inflation, or a resolution to the Iran conflict. - For Richland County sellers: price to move. Nationally, 20.8% of September listings carried a price cut, the highest share since October 2022. If your listing has sat 30+ days, a reduction now beats chasing the market down. - For buyers: your credit score and down payment matter more than waiting for rate drops. A 780+ score with 30%+ down beats the headline rate by 21 basis points. A sub-660 score with under 10% down pays a 25 bps penalty. On a $2,000 monthly P&I budget, 10 basis points translates to roughly $3,000 in purchasing power. (Realtor.com, Mortgage News Daily)

National inventory climbing, prices softening. Active listings rose 6.3% year over year nationally, the fastest pace in six months. Median listing price fell to $419,000, down 1.4% YoY, marking 37 consecutive weeks of declines. Inventory sits just 9.1% below pre-pandemic norms. Pending sales dropped to 59,316 for the week ending September 25, down 4.8% week over week and 9% year over year. - The Southeast comparison matters: Nashville saw new pendings drop 27.7% YoY with inventory up 9.1%, while Knoxville saw pendings rise 4.1%. Columbia's relative affordability and military/university demand anchors should buffer against Nashville-style softening, but watch Richland County pending counts closely over the next 30 days. - Homes are still selling 2 days faster than a year ago nationally, suggesting sellers who price correctly are finding buyers. (HousingWire, Realtor.com)

Fix-and-flip capital still flowing. Archwest Capital closed a $300M rated securitization backed by residential transition loans, its third in under a year ($875M total issuance). Investor demand exceeded $1B. The revolving structure reinvests principal repayments into new originations. - For Midlands flippers and bridge borrowers: institutional capital for business-purpose residential loans remains available and oversubscribed despite rate headwinds. If your deal pencils at current rates, financing is not the bottleneck. (HousingWire)

Deal Flow

BGO acquires surgery center portfolio including Columbia, SC. BGO (formerly BentallGreenOak) purchased an 11-property, 223,000 SF surgery center portfolio from a Flagship Healthcare Properties/AEW Capital joint venture. The portfolio spans nine markets, with Columbia, SC among them. All properties are 100% leased. Purchase price was not disclosed. - This is institutional capital flowing directly into Columbia commercial real estate. Medical outpatient facilities remain a favored asset class, driven by the shift toward ambulatory surgery. If you hold or manage medical office space in the Midlands, valuations for specialized surgical infrastructure are firm. Flagship will continue managing the properties. - For investor clients: healthcare-anchored CRE in secondary markets like Columbia is attracting the same institutional buyers competing in Nashville and Dallas. (Commercial Observer)

Construction labor softening. Construction job openings fell to 251,000 nationally in August (down from 299,000 in July), though still above 213,000 a year ago. Hiring rate dropped to 3.7% from 4.1% YoY. Immigration enforcement is creating additional worker availability challenges on some sites. - For Midlands builders and developers: if you're pulling permits for new construction, labor costs may stabilize slightly, but don't count on a surplus. Data center construction (up 46% YoY) is absorbing workers that might otherwise flow to residential. Plan subcontractor timelines accordingly. (NAHB)

Commercial & Investment

Affordable housing rehab financing model worth watching. Citizens Bank led a $77.6M financing package for a 150-unit affordable housing rehab in southern New Jersey, combining a $35.85M construction loan, a $23.73M Freddie Mac-backed tax-exempt loan, and $18.03M in LIHTC equity. The 1968-built complex will undergo interior and infrastructure upgrades. - The capital stack structure, construction loan plus tax-exempt debt plus LIHTC equity, is directly replicable for aging multifamily in Richland and Lexington Counties. Columbia has plenty of 1960s/1970s-era apartment stock that could qualify. If you're sourcing value-add multifamily, this financing template works for properties with Section 8 or workforce housing positioning. (Commercial Observer)

Property Management & Rentals

El Nino brings severe weather risk to the Southeast. A potential super El Nino is expected to bring cooler, wetter conditions to the Southeast this winter, with more severe convective storms and increased tornado activity. Cotality's chief scientist warns that insurance is "the canary in the coal mine," with rising rates and difficulty obtaining coverage serving as early indicators of property risk. - For Midlands property managers: review flood insurance coverage now. Flash flooding (pluvial flooding) is the primary risk, and standard flood hazard maps don't cover it well. Properties outside mandatory flood zones are still exposed. Check that rental properties carry adequate coverage before winter storm season. - For investor clients: watch transaction cancellation rates as a leading indicator of insurance-driven deal failures. (HousingWire)

Industry & Legal

Compass threatens to sue MLSs over office exclusive rules. CEO Robert Reffkin told the CMLS Open House conference that Compass will file antitrust lawsuits against any MLS that fines agents for publicly marketing office exclusives. Reffkin claims MLSs are "restraining competition" and that attorney Michael Ketchmark may bring class actions. - For Columbia agents: this fight will reshape how you market listings. If Compass wins or forces policy changes, the distinction between MLS-listed and privately marketed properties shifts. Watch your local MLS policy updates. Whatever side you fall on, document seller marketing preferences in writing. (HousingWire)

Zillow warns MLS transparency erosion could invite regulation. Zillow's Errol Samuelson told CMLS attendees that hiding listings, DOM, or price changes from public view chips away at the MLS system and will eventually bring government regulation. He also cautioned MLSs against blocking AI use of their data. - The practical takeaway: MLS data transparency is a regulatory flashpoint. South Carolina agents should expect SCREC to weigh in if national MLS policy fractures. Keep DOM and price history visible in your listings; hiding data erodes consumer trust and invites scrutiny. (HousingWire)

CertifID acquires Closinglock, consolidating fraud prevention. The combined company will share threat intelligence across both platforms, improving wire fraud detection during closings. - For Columbia title and closing professionals: wire fraud remains the top transaction risk. If you use either platform, no immediate changes are required, but expect deeper cross-platform fraud alerts. If you use neither, this is the time to evaluate, as AI-powered fraud attempts are accelerating. (HousingWire)

GSE credit score disclosure push. CHLA is backing FHFA Director Pulte's plan to have Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac publicly disclose their own credit scores alongside FICO and VantageScore. The trade group expects this to increase competition and curb annual credit score price increases that have occurred every fall since 2022. - Long-term, more credit score competition could lower origination costs for Midlands borrowers. Near-term, expect no operational changes, but loan officers should track this for client conversations about score requirements. (HousingWire)