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Today: 30-year fixed rates breached 7% and kept climbing to 7.43-7.50% on the daily index, bond markets experienced what analysts called a "parabolic flourish of selling" over the past two weeks, and the housing supply gap widened to 4.03 million homes nationally as construction labor shortages add two months to build timelines.
Rates are at the worst level since May 2024 and still rising. Freddie Mac's weekly average hit 7.03%, MBA reported 7.12%, and the daily Mortgage News Daily index tracked between 7.43% and 7.50% as of today. The 10-year Treasury is running at 5.16-5.23%, and bond selling over the past two weeks accelerated at a pace analysts described as unprecedented. Fed members are now openly floating the possibility of another rate hike, not just holding. For Richland County agents: rerun every pre-approval in your pipeline right now. A buyer qualified at 6.80% two weeks ago may not clear at 7.40%. The 15-year fixed at 6.42-6.43% is the better play for move-up buyers who can handle the payment. (RISMedia Mortgage Mix) (Mortgage News Daily)
ARMs are the escape valve, and borrowers are using them. The 5/1 ARM averaged 6.10%, more than a full percentage point below the 30-year fixed. ARM share climbed to 9.8% of applications. For Fort Jackson PCS families and USC-area investors with 3-7 year hold periods, the ARM math works. A $300,000 loan at 6.10% vs. 7.03% saves roughly $170/month. Make sure clients understand the adjustment caps and worst-case scenario before signing. (MBA Weekly Application Survey)
Refi demand collapsed. Purchase apps grinding sideways. Refinance applications hit the slowest pace since February 2025, down 62% year-over-year. Purchase applications fell 1% week-over-week. The MBA Payment Index ticked down slightly from $2,175 to $2,162, but that reflects mix shift, not affordability improvement. The pipeline is not dead in Columbia, but it is thin. If you are listing in Lexington County or Blythewood, price accurately on day one. There is no wave of buyers to catch an overpriced listing. (MBA Refi/Purchase Data)
Consumer sentiment is underwater, inflation expectations rising. University of Michigan consumer sentiment sits at 48.1 with 1-year inflation expectations at 4.6% and 5-year expectations at 3.4%. Those 5-year numbers matter because they influence where the Fed sets policy. As long as consumers expect inflation to stay above 3%, the Fed has cover to keep rates elevated or hike again. Richland County sellers need to understand this: buyers are not just hesitant about price, they are pessimistic about the economy itself. (MBS Recap)
National housing supply gap: 4.03 million homes, 1.2 million unit shortage. This structural deficit keeps a floor under prices even as rates crush demand. Columbia's version of this is the lock-in effect. The majority of Midlands homeowners hold mortgages below 4%. They are not listing. New construction is the only path to meaningful inventory growth, and that path just got harder. (Let America Build Campaign)
VA loans are the best-kept financing tool for Fort Jackson families. VA denial rates run 8.2%, far below FHA (12-15%), USDA, or conventional. VA borrowers with sub-700 credit scores averaged 6.084% rates, the lowest of any loan type. Full entitlement restores when the prior VA loan is repaid and the property sold. VA appraisals run 7-10 business days, comparable to conventional. For agents working the Fort Jackson PCS cycle: lead with VA financing in every buyer consultation. The combination of no down payment, no PMI, and lowest available rate is the strongest affordability play in the Midlands at 7%+ conventional rates. (AIME VA Loan Report)
Student housing near USC is caught between rate pressure and enrollment demand. Investors considering Five Points or Olympia duplexes should model at current ARM rates (6.10%) for a realistic cash flow picture. At 7.03-7.50% on a 30-year fixed, most student rental acquisitions in the $250K-$400K range will not cash flow without significant rent increases or seller concessions. Negotiate aggressively on price and closing costs. Builders nationally are discounting 47-92% of inventory below asking depending on market. Columbia is not Texas, but the leverage has shifted. (Builder Discount Data)
National new home sales surged to an 8-month high, and builders are buying deals. Median new home prices are falling nationally as builders compete through rate buydowns, price discounts, and closing-cost incentives. In aggressive markets, 47-92% of new homes are selling below asking price. Public builders are absorbing margin compression to move inventory before year-end. For Columbia agents: new construction in Lexington County, Chapin, and Blythewood subdivisions is now a direct competitor to resale inventory. Before showing existing homes, ask the local builder rep what buydown programs and concession packages are on the table. The builder may be offering a 5.5% effective rate on a 2-1 buydown that no resale seller can match. (Builder Discount Analysis) (New Home Sales Data)
Foreclosure filings ticking up but still below historical norms. National filings rose 1% month-over-month and 13% year-over-year. The absolute numbers remain well below pre-2020 levels. For Richland County investors watching the distressed pipeline: this is a slow drip, not a wave. Monitor SC foreclosure starts from 2024-2025 originations at peak rates. Tax sale and REO inventory typically lags national data by 6-9 months in the Midlands. (ATTOM Foreclosure Data via RISMedia)
Rate lock-in is creating accidental landlords across the Midlands. With the majority of existing mortgages below 4% and current rates above 7%, homeowners who need to relocate for work, military PCS, or family reasons cannot sell without giving up a historically cheap mortgage. The rational move is to convert to a rental. Property management companies in Richland and Lexington County should be marketing directly to this segment. The pipeline of reluctant landlords will grow as long as the rate gap persists.
Seller disclosure rules matter for converted rentals. Owners transitioning from primary residence to rental need to understand SC disclosure requirements before leasing. Any known material defects must be disclosed to tenants, and the transition from homeowner insurance to landlord/rental policy is not optional. SCREC provides guidance on disclosure obligations. Agents advising clients on the rent-vs-sell decision should flag these compliance items upfront. (Redfin Seller Disclosure Overview)
Compass is asking MLSs to block listing data from recruiting tools. The move targets third-party platforms like Courted, Brokerkit, and Brokermetrics that scrape MLS data to identify top-producing agents for poaching. For Columbia brokerages: this signals an escalation in the franchise and recruiting wars. If your production data is in the MLS, it is being used by competitors to build recruiting pitches. Talk to your MLS board about data access policies. (Compass MLS Data Request)
FASB proposing standardized MSR accounting for recapture values. Mortgage servicing rights (MSR, the right to collect payments on behalf of a loan owner) valuation has been inconsistent across servicers. A new accounting standard would bring uniformity to how recapture (the value of refinancing a borrower you already service) is valued. For Columbia mortgage companies that hold servicing: this could affect book value and capital planning. Comment period closes November 9. (FASB MSR Proposal)
MLS restructuring and industry consolidation continue. The post-settlement landscape is driving consolidation of MLS systems, commission transparency requirements, and new compliance obligations. South Carolina agents should stay current with SCREC guidance on buyer representation agreements and commission disclosure. The next wave of changes is coming from state legislatures, not just NAR. If your brokerage has not updated its buyer agency agreements since the settlement, do it now. (MLS Consolidation Trends)