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Today: 30-year fixed rates surged to 7.26%, matching the highest level since May 2024, after a massive bond selloff driven by blowout S&P PMI data. National active inventory climbed 5.8% year-over-year to 1.17 million homes, and seller concessions hit 44.7% nationally in August, with Sun Belt metros like Charlotte posting 67.9%.
Rates spiked hard. The average top-tier 30-year fixed jumped 9 basis points to 7.26% on September 23, matching the high from early 2025. The catalyst: S&P PMI data came in far above expectations (Composite 58.4, Manufacturing 57.0, Services 58.7), forcing the market to price in stronger odds of a second Fed rate hike at the next meeting and over 50% probability of two hikes by December. For Richland County agents: buyer qualification windows just narrowed again. A borrower who qualified at 6.95% last week may not clear at 7.26%. Rerun pre-approvals on any deal in pipeline. (Mortgage Rates Match Highest Level Since May 2024) (Why Bonds Sold Off So Severely Today) (Sharply Weaker on Oil and Econ Data)
National inventory at highest since late 2019. Active listings rose 5.8% year-over-year to 1.17 million for the week ending September 19. Time on market nationally is 61 days, one day faster than last year, suggesting buyers still in the market are financially prepared. Median listing price fell 1.3% year-over-year to $419,500, marking 36 consecutive weeks of declines. Columbia agents should frame listing presentations around this: national price softening gives local sellers less room for aspirational pricing. If Richland County inventory is tracking anywhere near the national trend, overpriced listings will sit. (Weekly Housing Trends)
Down payments at lowest Q2 since 2021. The median fell to $27,100 (13.7% of purchase price), down 9.2% year-over-year. Monthly P&I payments are up 74% since 2021 and 3.5% in the past year alone. For Columbia buyer agents: falling down payments signal buyers are stretching. Pair this with the rate spike and you have a shrinking qualified buyer pool. Focus on rate buydown strategies and seller-paid closing cost negotiations. (Down Payments Report)
Seller concessions surging in the Sun Belt. 44.7% of buyers nationally received seller concessions in August, up from 42.6% a year earlier. Charlotte posted 67.9%, Raleigh 66.3%. Columbia typically tracks between Charlotte and Raleigh on these metrics. If you're listing in Richland or Lexington County, price to account for 2-3% in concessions from the start. 15.8% of August sales nationally had both a price drop and concessions. The days of holding firm are over in most price bands. (Are the Scales Tipping Toward Buyers?)
Housing starts stabilizing, building permits declining less than expected. National housing starts are holding steady as developers move cautiously. Building permits declined less than anticipated, which economists read as economic resilience. For the Midlands: new construction in Lexington County subdivisions (Chapin, Irmo corridor) may see slower permitting velocity as builders recalculate at 7.26% rates. Watch local permit data for confirmation. (Housing Starts Stabilize) (Building Permits Decline Less Than Anticipated)
New home sales data due today (September 24). August new home sales are expected to show an upward correction in a broader slowing trend. Watch this number for signals on builder confidence in the Southeast. (Preview: U.S. August New Home Sales)
Affordable housing: public-private partnerships are the lever. A detailed Commercial Observer analysis argues that preservation of existing affordable stock, not just new construction, is the most overlooked tool. Nationally, 7 million affordable rental units have disappeared since 2014. For Columbia investors: Richland County's Section 8 stock and older multifamily near USC campus are exactly the asset class at risk. If you hold affordable units with expiring LIHTC (Low-Income Housing Tax Credit) agreements, the value-add play is refinancing with preservation-oriented capital, not converting to market rate in a 7.26% environment. (The Power of the Public-Private Partnership for Affordable Housing)
Multifamily vs. single-family: the beginner investor decision. BiggerPockets breaks down the math. In Columbia's price bands, duplexes in areas like Rosewood, Eau Claire, or West Columbia still pencil better than SFR (single-family rental) for cash flow due to lower per-door acquisition costs. At 7.26% rates, the duplex's second unit providing income is the difference between positive cash flow and a monthly loss. Run DSCR (Debt Service Coverage Ratio) numbers on both before committing. (Multifamily vs. Single-Family Investing)
FHA MIP (Mortgage Insurance Premium) holding steady. Ginnie Mae's Gormley confirmed no changes to single-family or reverse mortgage MIP structures. Multifamily got a 25 bps reduction last year, but single-family borrowers see no relief. For Columbia FHA buyers, this means budget for MIP as-is. No cavalry coming on that cost line. (Ginnie Mae's Gormley Signals No Change to FHA MIP)
Private RESPA lawsuits replacing regulator enforcement. The Veterans United case and the post-Sitzer wave of private class actions mean that referral fee structures between agents and lenders are under litigation pressure from plaintiffs' firms, not just the CFPB. Columbia agents: if your brokerage has a referral arrangement with a lender or lead source, review the fee structure now. "No regulator ever objected" is no longer a defense. One borrower with a lawyer inside the statute of limitations is all it takes. (The Examiner Never Called) (How Agents Can Vet a Referral Partner)
PLACE acquires Maxwell, consolidating mortgage tech. PLACE now spans search, brokerage, valuation, title, and mortgage origination after adding Maxwell's point-of-sale platform (400+ financial institutions, ~10% of U.S. origination transactions). For independent Columbia brokerages: this vertical integration trend means your tech stack competes against platforms that own the entire transaction chain. Evaluate whether your CRM, LOS (Loan Origination System), and POS integrations can match. (PLACE Acquires Maxwell)
NAHB pushing midterm voter engagement on housing. Chairman Owens is urging members to make housing a ballot issue this November. For SC builders and agents: check nahb.org/vote for pro-housing candidate resources. IBS moves permanently to Las Vegas starting February 2027; early registration deals expire September 30. (Chairman's Update)