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Today: 30-year fixed hit 6.97% and climbing toward 7% after the Fed hiked again this week, South Carolina overtook Florida as the nation's foreclosure capital, and national housing starts fell 2.6% while builder confidence dropped to a 3-year low at 32.
Mortgage rates near 7%, Fed signals more hikes. The 30-year fixed averaged 6.97% this week, up from 6.85%, with the 10-year Treasury flirting with 5%. The Fed raised rates again this week and penciled in 1-2 more hikes. Jumbo 30-year loans crossed 7.03%. For Columbia listings priced at the Richland County median, this pushes monthly payments roughly $150-200 higher than six months ago. Agents should be running updated affordability scenarios for every active buyer. Sellers sitting on overpriced listings need a pricing reset conversation now, not next month. (Mortgage News Daily) (MBA Weekly)
Housing starts fell 2.6% nationally to 1.275M annualized in August. Single-family starts actually rebounded 7.6% to 918K, but multifamily dropped sharply. Building permits declined 2.7% to 1.394M. Completions cratered 11.9%, down 27.1% year-over-year. In the Midlands, where new construction in northeast Richland and Lexington County has been a bright spot, expect permit activity to soften if rates stay above 7%. Builders relying on incentives to move inventory should watch Lennar's playbook (below). (Mortgage News Daily)
Builder confidence hit a 3-year low. The NAHB/Wells Fargo HMI fell to 32 in September. 38% of builders are cutting prices (up from 35%), 66% are offering sales incentives (highest since December), and 42% rate lot availability as "poor." For Columbia-area investors considering new-build spec purchases or builder partnerships, this is a buyer's market for negotiating upgrades and concessions on standing inventory. (Mortgage News Daily)
Pending sales up 0.3% nationally, but down 4.7% YoY. The South showed modest gains. NAR noted pending sales remain 30% below pre-pandemic levels. Richmond, VA, and Virginia Beach saw annual gains, markets that often move in tandem with the Carolinas. Income growth is outpacing price growth nationally, but borrowing costs are eating the advantage. If you have buyers waiting for a rate dip, this week's Fed action says that dip is not coming soon. (Mortgage News Daily)
Leading Economic Index turned negative for the first time in six months. The Conference Board's LEI fell 0.1% in August, with building permits and consumer expectations dragging it down. GDP growth forecast revised down to 1.8% for 2027. This confirms what the Columbia market is already feeling: the expansion is losing steam. Plan listing strategies accordingly; overpriced properties will sit. (RISMedia)
Lennar missed Q3 earnings, deliveries down 3.4%. The nation's second-largest builder saw new orders drop 9%, average sale price fall to $372K, and nearly 50% of showroom visitors unable to qualify. Incentive use moderated to 12% but is still elevated. Lennar's struggles signal what Columbia-area production builders (Mungo, DR Horton, Great Southern) are facing at the entry-level price point. If you represent buyers in the $250-350K range, push them toward builders offering rate buydowns now. (HousingWire)
Mortgage application volume fell 4.1%, refi down 65% YoY. Refinance activity is effectively frozen at these rates. For Columbia commercial and investment players, the financing picture is stark: 30-year fixed at 6.97%, jumbo at 7.03%, 5/1 ARM at 6.23% (up from 5.82%). The ARM rate advantage over fixed has nearly vanished. Investors underwriting multifamily or small commercial deals in the Midlands need to model at 7%+ and make sure the deal still pencils. Creative structures (seller financing, subject-to, lease-options) become more relevant every week rates stay elevated. (MBA/Mortgage News Daily)
$36 trillion in home equity nationally. Shared equity products and HELOCs are getting heavy lender attention. For Columbia property owners sitting on equity from 2020-2023 appreciation, HELOC rates are more competitive than cash-out refis at current pricing. Investors considering portfolio expansion should evaluate HELOC draws on existing properties rather than conventional financing for acquisitions. (Mortgage News Daily)
Compass/MRED antitrust fallout continues. Hagens Berman is recruiting plaintiffs for a class action claiming Compass and MRED hold a 98% listing market share in Chicago and inflate buyer costs through "Private Exclusive" listings. Compass's own data shows homes starting as Private Exclusives sold for 4.6% more than comparable MLS-first listings. Separately, the Zillow vs. MRED antitrust case is heading to closed-door arbitration. While these are Chicago-centric, the legal theories around pocket listings, days-on-market transparency, and MLS data access will set national precedent. Columbia brokerages running any form of "coming soon" or off-MLS marketing should review their practices against these emerging standards. (HousingWire - Hagens Berman) (HousingWire - Zillow/MRED)
Realtor.com fake leads lawsuit heading to private arbitration. Agents claimed leads purchased from Realtor.com were fake or nonexistent. The Ninth Circuit upheld the lower court's order sending the case to arbitration, meaning proceedings will be largely out of public view. NAR is a co-defendant. If you buy leads from Realtor.com or similar platforms, document lead quality and conversion rates. This case may eventually produce standards for what constitutes a "qualified" lead. (HousingWire)
NAR won Meta's 2026 Agency Award for AI-powered buyer targeting. Their Advantage+ campaign generated 432K landing page views while cutting cost-per-view by 29%. NAR reported a 9-point increase in consumers intending to use a Realtor. For Columbia agents running Meta ads, this validates the Advantage+ audience approach over manual targeting. Test it on your next listing campaign. (RISMedia)