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Today: The Fed unanimously hiked rates 25 bps to 3.75%-4%, pushing mortgage rates to their highest since January 2025 and above the 7% threshold. Builder sentiment dropped to 32, its lowest since September 2025, with 38% of builders cutting prices. National rents fell for the 37th consecutive month as concession rates hit 43.5%.
Fed hikes rates, mortgage rates blow past 7%. The FOMC raised the federal funds rate 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75%-4%, its first hike since the 2022-2023 cycle. Chair Warsh's press conference was unambiguously hawkish: inflation at 3.6% PCE is "too high," the economy is "strong," and the Fed needs to "remove some accommodation." Nearly half the committee sees at least two more hikes this cycle. Mortgage rates hit their highest level since January 2025, with the 10-year Treasury touching 5.01% intraday. For Richland County agents: rates above 7% have historically frozen buyer activity in the Midlands. Purchase applications were already declining above 6.64%; expect further erosion in showing traffic and pending contracts through Q4. Adjust seller expectations on DOM now, not after listings go stale. - Realtor.com: FOMC September 2026 Meeting - Mortgage News Daily: No, The Fed Didn't Hike Mortgage Rates Today - RISMedia: Fed Unanimously Raises Rates - HousingWire: The Fed Rate-Hike Cycle Has Started - Mortgage News Daily: Huge Volatility After Fed
Builder sentiment craters to 32. The NAHB/Wells Fargo HMI fell three points to 32 in September, the lowest reading since September 2025. Current sales conditions dropped to 35, future expectations to 37, and buyer traffic held at a dismal 23. The South region index sits at 31. Notably, 38% of builders are cutting prices (average cut: 6% for the sixth straight month) and 66% are offering incentives, approaching December's high of 67%. For Columbia new-construction buyers: this is leverage. Builders in Lexington County subdivisions and the Northeast Columbia corridor are competing hard for contracts. Push for closing cost credits, rate buydowns, and upgrade packages. - NAHB: Builder Sentiment Falls - RISMedia: High Prices, Immigration Crackdown Weigh on Homebuilders
New listings outpacing pending sales nationally. Over the six weeks from July 17 to August 21, there were 96 pending sales for every 100 new listings nationally, down from 98 a year ago. Some metros are seeing sharper divergence (Seattle: 81 per 100, Louisville: 85 per 100). This ratio is the early-warning signal for inventory builds. Columbia agents should track local pending-to-new-listing ratios weekly. If Richland County tips below 90, pricing strategies need to shift from "test the market" to "price to sell." - HousingWire: Housing Market Spotlight
Bond market rejects Treasury's rate intervention. The Treasury's $6 billion bond buyback program intended to lower yields backfired. The 10-year yield hit new highs, and the 30-year mortgage rate crossed 7.07%. Dave Meyer at BiggerPockets is forecasting rates stay elevated through 2027, driven by three factors: the Iran conflict, trade war uncertainty, and strong economic data (Q3 GDP running at 5.1%, retail sales beating estimates). For Midlands investors: stop waiting for sub-6% rates. Underwrite deals at 7%+ and structure accordingly. - BiggerPockets: You're Not Gonna Like What Happens to Mortgage Rates
Building permits data due, builder incentives at cycle highs. National building permit and pending home sales data are expected this week. With builder incentives at 66% and price cuts at 38%, the new construction pipeline is under stress. In the Columbia market, watch for permit slowdowns in Lexington County and the Blythewood corridor. Builders pulling fewer permits means less future inventory, which supports resale values for existing homes even as current demand softens. Investors: expired new-construction lots may start appearing. Monitor Richland County permit records for stalled subdivisions. - Investing.com: Building Permits, Jobless Claims and Pending Home Sales Due
SC regional: Myrtle Beach firm buys 365 apartments on Greenville's Swamp Rabbit Trail. This signals continued institutional appetite for South Carolina multifamily, even at elevated cap rates. Greenville's trail-adjacent properties command premium rents. Columbia investors should watch whether similar institutional buyers turn attention to the Vista or Cayce/West Columbia multifamily stock, where per-unit pricing remains lower than Greenville or Charleston. - Post and Courier: Myrtle Beach Company Buys 365 Apartments
Small investors still drive U.S. rental supply. The 2024 Rental Housing Finance Survey shows individual investors own 59% of rental properties (32% of units), while LLCs and LPs own 21% of properties but 43% of units. The challenge: elevated rates, rising insurance, tighter lending, and climbing property taxes are squeezing reinvestment. Section 1031 exchanges remain critical for repositioning appreciated assets. Columbia landlords sitting on equity in aging Rosewood or Shandon duplexes should evaluate 1031 exchanges into better-positioned properties before rates climb further and cap rate compression reverses. - HousingWire: Can Empowering Small Investors Strengthen America's Housing Supply?
Industrial flex space gaining traction nationally. CBRE reports 3PL leasing up 19% year-over-year, with shorter lease terms and smaller footprints driving demand for flexible warehouse space. On-demand warehousing arrangements under one month now represent over half the on-demand sector. For Columbia commercial brokers: the Midlands' logistics corridor along I-77 and I-26 is positioned to benefit. Market flex/short-term industrial space to e-commerce fulfillment operators looking for Southeast distribution nodes. - Commercial Observer: Warehub Founder on Industrial's Flexibility Needs
National rents down 37 consecutive months. The August 2026 median asking rent across the 50 largest metros fell to $1,699, down 0.9% year-over-year. All unit sizes declined: studios ($1,436, -1.2%), one-beds ($1,586, -0.8%), two-beds ($1,896, -0.9%). Concession rates hit 43.5%, up 3.1 percentage points from a year ago. Rents remain 15.4% above pre-pandemic levels but are $65 below the 2022 peak. For Columbia property managers: the Midlands is not Denver (71.9% concession rate) or Austin (70.7%), but the national trend is filtering down. If your vacancy rate is climbing, get ahead of it with targeted concessions rather than chasing the market down with rent reductions. Waiving application fees or offering a month of free parking costs less than a month of vacancy. - Realtor.com: August 2026 Rental Report
Fed projects more hikes, mortgage industry braces. The updated Summary of Economic Projections shows Fed Funds rate projections rising 30 bps in 2026 and 50 bps each in 2027 and 2028. For SCREC licensees: the rate environment means buyer qualification is tightening. Brush up on creative financing structures, seller financing disclosures, and VA loan benefits for Fort Jackson-connected buyers. Agents who can navigate rate buydowns and adjustable-rate options will win listings from agents who can only quote conventional 30-year fixed. - Mortgage News Daily: Here's What Changed in The New Fed Announcement
Construction labor: women's share hits 20-year high, but shortages persist. Women accounted for 11.3% of the construction workforce in 2025, up to 1.37 million workers. However, only 4% work in construction and extraction roles. Combined with NAHB reports of immigration enforcement discouraging legal workers from job sites, labor shortages remain a binding constraint on new supply in the Midlands. Expect longer build times and higher per-unit costs for new construction in Richland and Lexington Counties through 2027. - NAHB: Women's Share of Construction Workforce Reaches 20-Year High