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Today: 30-year fixed mortgage rates hit 6.85%, the highest since June 2025. Mortgage lock volume dropped 9% in August as rate-and-term refinances fell 47% year-over-year. ARM demand climbed to 8.5% of applications as borrowers hunt for relief.
Mortgage rates continue climbing. The 30-year fixed hit 6.85% last week, up from 6.79% the prior week and 36 basis points higher than a year ago, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. The Optimal Blue report shows the 30-year conforming rate ended August at 6.72%, with a 12-month forecast calling for 6.51%. That means buyers closing in Columbia today are locking at the highest rates in over a year, and relief won't arrive until mid-2027 at the earliest.
Purchase mortgage locks fell 10% month-over-month in August but remained 6% above year-ago levels. The pending home sales data confirms the slowdown: national pending sales dropped 2.3% month-over-month to the lowest level since January 2026. Realtor.com's senior economist notes the market will "likely continue its seasonal drift" as attention turns to the school year, which could create opportunity for buyers still active, particularly if rates find relief.
The national home price and market review shows existing home sales down 1.7% month-over-month with the median price at $434,100, up 2% year-over-year. Inventory fell 1.9% monthly and 0.6% annually. New home sales dropped harder: down 10.5% month-over-month and 6.3% year-over-year, with the median new home price at $393,800. Builders are feeling the rate pressure. NAR's affordability index improved across all four regions, up 6.1% in the South.
For active Richland County listings, these numbers mean: expect DOM to stretch as buyers wait for rate relief. Price competitively or prepare to sit.
ARM demand is back. Adjustable-rate mortgages now represent 8.5% of applications, the highest since June and nearly triple the pandemic-era low of 3%. The average 5-year ARM rate last week was 5.82%, more than a full point below the 30-year fixed. Borrowers are trading payment certainty for immediate affordability, which opens the door for investor conversations: clients stretching to qualify on fixed rates may now pencil on an ARM, but they need to model the reset risk at year five.
D.R. Horton's 2027 budget signals restraint. The nation's largest builder is finalizing its plan, and analysts expect a conservative approach to volume rather than aggressive incentives. Horton's 2026 plan anticipated a 7-8% decline in closings per community, prioritizing margin over market share. If Horton stays disciplined, expect less price pressure from new construction competitors in the Columbia market. If they pivot to volume, brace for deeper builder incentives that will compress resale pricing power.
Charles Cohen's foreclosure recovery in Florida shows distressed developers are back in the game. Cohen lost properties to foreclosure in 2024, paid off judgments in June, and is now launching a $350 million speculative office project in Dania Beach. That's relevant for Columbia's commercial pipeline: access to construction financing is loosening for sponsors with track records, even post-distress.
Coworking firm IWG leased 22,000 SF at 475 Park Avenue South in Manhattan at $75-$85/SF. Flexible workspace demand remains strong in urban cores, which supports the case for coworking conversions in Columbia's Vista and Main Street districts. If Manhattan can command that rent for flex space, Columbia's $20-$30/SF office stock has upside as adaptive reuse targets.
Acadia Realty Trust bought two SoHo retail buildings for $60 million, continuing its acquisition spree across Greene Street, Wooster Street, and Williamsburg. Retail REITs are deploying capital into high-traffic pedestrian corridors. For Columbia investors, that validates the thesis on Assembly Street, Five Points, and Devine Street retail: walkable, amenity-rich retail holds value even as suburban strip centers fade.
Non-QM loans hit 11% of production in August, up 3 percentage points year-over-year. Investor and DSCR loans made up 35% of non-QM volume, with bank-statement loans at 30%. That's the financing path for self-employed buyers and fix-and-flip operators who can't document W-2 income. If you're sourcing deals for investor clients in Richland County, make sure your lender handles non-QM. Conventional underwriting won't clear half these deals.
Rental demand is shifting. Zillow's out-of-town search data shows Buffalo, Chicago, and Houston seeing the biggest growth in remote renter interest, followed by New Orleans and Dallas. Columbia didn't make the top-10 list, but the thesis applies: renters are relocating to cheaper markets, and rental searches are a leading indicator of home sales. August rents turned positive month-over-month for the first time in four years, according to Apartment List, though still slightly below year-ago levels.
The best cities for renters are dominated by the South: 37 of the top 50 cities are Southern markets, with McKinney, Texas; Huntsville, Alabama; and Austin topping the list. Columbia's affordability relative to Charlotte, Atlanta, and Charleston positions it well for renter inflow, particularly from military PCS cycles at Fort Jackson and USC enrollment growth.
Better.com's leadership shakeup continues. CEO Vishal Garg was ousted, replaced by Daniel Lewis, and now COO Chad Smith has left for Envoy Mortgage. Better promoted David Parrish to head of enterprise operations and confirmed another COO, Barry Feierstein, is stepping down. The company posted a $14 million adjusted EBITDA loss in Q2 and expects losses to widen to $15-$18 million in Q3. Better went public in 2023 and the stock has dropped 90% since. For agents and loan officers, this is a reminder: fintech disruption is hard, and operational discipline matters more than venture capital hype.
A federal judge denied Better's restraining order against Garg, ruling the company failed to demonstrate "irreparable harm." The legal battle between Better and its founder continues.
The Gibson commission lawsuit settlements were upheld by the Eighth Circuit Court of Appeals, following the same court's recent affirmation of the NAR Burnett settlement. The judges ruled that practice changes "address the challenged rules and attempt to remediate the harm" caused by "inflated home prices." For South Carolina agents, this confirms the settlement structure is final. SCREC guidance on buyer-broker agreements and commission disclosure remains in effect.
Zillow faces a harassment and discrimination lawsuit from a former employee alleging age-based mockery, blocked promotions, and termination after medical leave. The complaint, filed in Colorado federal court, claims the employee developed serious mental health issues due to supervisor abuse.