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Today: National mortgage rates holding near 7% are creating tougher year-over-year comps through fall, inventory growth is moderating after last year's late-summer demand surge, and purchase applications have flattened as rates stayed above the 6.64% threshold that historically slows housing activity.
National purchase application data went flat year-over-year last week after 25 consecutive weeks of positive growth earlier in 2026. The culprit: mortgage rates camping above 6.64%, the historical threshold where housing demand consistently slows. With the 30-year fixed near 7%, Richland County agents should expect softer buyer traffic through October compared to last fall when rates were dropping toward 6%.
Housing year-over-year comps need context for the rest of 2026
The year-over-year comparison context matters for Columbia: last year at this time, rates were falling and inventory growth was slowing as demand picked up. That means any inventory increases locally will show easier year-over-year gains through year-end, even if the actual week-to-week growth is mild. National inventory rose only 0.4% last week (879,764 to 883,683 units), but that's up 4.4% year-over-year due to easier comps. Watch for similar patterns in Richland and Lexington County MLS data.
Pending sales nationally dropped slightly (65,168 last year vs 64,447 this year for the same week), consistent with the rate environment. For active Columbia listings: price competitively now or expect longer DOM (Days on Market) through fall. Buyers waiting for rate drops should be counseled that inventory may tighten if rates do fall, potentially offsetting any payment savings with bidding competition.
Housing year-over-year comps need context for the rest of 2026