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Today: 30-year fixed rates hit 6.89%, their highest since June 2025, as Iran conflict drives oil and yields higher. National pending sales turned negative year-over-year for the first time in eight months, and student housing investment is surging at Power Four universities, with $1.3 billion in portfolio deals closed this quarter.
Rates keep climbing. The 30-year fixed averaged 6.79% on applications last week (MBA data) and pushed to 6.89% on the Mortgage News Daily index as of September 1, the highest since June 2025. The driver: Iran conflict pushing oil prices to late-July highs, which feeds inflation expectations and bond yields. For Richland County listings priced above $300K, expect longer DOM and more price reductions. Counsel sellers to price aggressively now rather than chase the market down through October. (Mortgage News Daily, CNBC)
ARM share rising. Adjustable-rate mortgage applications hit 8% of volume, a 5-week high. The 5/1 ARM rate dropped to 5.94%, nearly a full point below the 30-year fixed. For Columbia buyers stretching into the $350K-$450K range, ARMs are becoming a real conversation. Make sure clients understand the reset risk; these loans adjust after the fixed period to whatever the prevailing rate is. (CNBC)
National pending sales turned negative. After eight straight months of year-over-year growth, pending sales fell 0.2% YoY in August (Realtor.com). Price cuts hit 20.4% of listings nationally, matching last year for the first time in 2026. Median list prices declined for a 10th straight month (-1.3% YoY). The good news: delistings are down 12.6% versus last August, meaning sellers are not quitting the market yet. For Columbia agents, watch your local price-cut rate closely this week; if it tracks above 20%, it is time to have direct pricing conversations with sellers still anchored to spring expectations. (Realtor.com)
Single-family construction shifting to smaller metros. NAHB data shows large metro core counties posted a 13.9% decline in single-family permits (fifth straight quarterly drop), while small metro outlying counties ticked up 0.9%. Richland and Lexington counties fit the "small metro" profile where builders are finding more opportunity. Multifamily, meanwhile, is strengthening in core metros. Watch for new multifamily permit activity along the Bull Street or Assembly Street corridors. (NAHB)
Institutional capital is flooding the sector. Scion Group and Ares Management just closed a $435M acquisition of 2,316 beds across Georgia, Tennessee, and Texas. This follows their $910M purchase from Harrison Street in May (7,578 beds across 12 universities). Harrison Street's CIO specifically named UNC and other Power Four schools as operating at or above 95% occupancy with supply lagging enrollment. USC falls squarely in this category. For Columbia investors holding off-campus student housing near Five Points or the Vista: institutional buyers are validating your asset class at scale. If you are considering selling a student housing portfolio, the bid pool has never been deeper. If you are buying, underwrite to the institutional standard because that is your competition. (Commercial Observer, CNBC)
Pre-leasing nationally at 89.1% in July (Yardi 200), up from 88.1% a year ago. But performance varies sharply by market. The key differentiator: enrollment growth, research funding, and selectivity. USC's consistent enrollment and Columbia's limited off-campus pipeline should keep local occupancy tight through the 2026-2027 academic year. Fort Jackson PCS cycles add a secondary demand layer that most student housing markets lack. (CNBC)
Tax-exempt CMBS gaining traction for affordable housing. A $153M tax-exempt affordable housing bond deal through the Public Finance Authority closed in July, 8x oversubscribed. These structures offer 50-60 basis points of spread savings over taxable securitizations and are backed by 4% LIHTC (Low-Income Housing Tax Credit) properties. For Columbia developers working on affordable or workforce housing, this financing channel is scaling fast. If you have a LIHTC project in the pipeline, talk to your capital markets advisor about tax-exempt securitization as an alternative to traditional Fannie/Freddie multifamily debt. (Commercial Observer)
Property tax reassessment risk. Investors buying Columbia-area multifamily or commercial properties at prices well above current assessed value should underwrite to the reassessed tax bill, not the seller's current taxes. A property bought for $3M with a $1M assessment could see taxes triple after reassessment. At a 7% cap rate (annual NOI divided by purchase price), that $40K annual tax increase destroys $571K of value. Richland County reassesses on a cycle; check when the next countywide reassessment is scheduled before closing. (HousingWire)
Mortgage industry consolidation accelerating. Seven large banks grew mortgage volume 20.8% QoQ in Q2 while the industry forecast was 3-6%. Wells Fargo alone was up 43%. These banks are using mortgages as relationship instruments, not standalone profit centers, meaning they can underwrite at razor-thin margins. Independent mortgage brokers in Columbia competing on rate alone are in a losing position. MBA projects total originations flat at roughly $2.2T through 2028 with 30-year rates near 6.5%, meaning no rate relief is coming to bail out thin margins. (HousingWire)
California condo defect reform fails. AB 1903, which would have eased construction defect liability for condo builders, died without an Assembly vote. While this is California-specific, it signals that construction defect reform remains politically difficult nationwide. South Carolina's liability framework for condo construction is more builder-friendly, which is one reason Columbia still sees new condo development where West Coast markets do not. (HousingWire)
Real REMAX Group forms, names new president. Alex Vidal (formerly ERA) takes over as REMAX president following the Real Brokerage acquisition. The combined entity has 145,000+ agents. Columbia REMAX affiliates should watch for technology integration changes and potential shifts in fee structures as the merger integrates. (HousingWire, RISMedia)