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Today: Mortgage rates jumped to 6.81% after Fed Chair Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole speech, with markets now pricing a 56% chance of a September rate hike. New home sales dropped 10.5% in July to their lowest level since January. Case-Shiller shows home price appreciation at just 1.5% nationally, with a widening gap between Midwest/Northeast strength and Sun Belt softness.
Rates spiked on Jackson Hole hawkishness. The 30-year fixed hit 6.81%, a 3-week high, after Fed Chair Warsh signaled inflation at 3.7% PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge) is still too far from the 2% target. CME FedWatch now shows 56% odds of a September rate hike, up from 35% a day earlier. Bond selling was aggressive: 10-year Treasuries climbed to 4.72%, and MBS (mortgage-backed securities) shed 3/8ths of a point. For Richland County agents: do not tell buyers to wait for rate relief this fall. Price consultations should assume 6.75-7.00% for the next 90 days at minimum. Sellers listing now should factor in buyer payment shock at these levels. (Realtor.com, Mortgage News Daily, HousingWire, RISMedia, HousingWire)
Mortgage applications slipped again. MBA reported total volume down 1.0% for the week ending August 21. Purchase apps fell 0.3% week-over-week and sit 5% below last year. Refinance demand dropped 2%, running 17% below year-ago levels. FHA applications fell 7% in a single week. The rate breakdown: 30-year fixed at 6.78%, 15-year at 6.10%, FHA at 6.46%, 5/1 ARM at 5.98%. ARM share ticked up to 7.9%. If you're advising buyers in the $200K-$300K Richland County range, run ARM scenarios. The 80+ bps spread between ARM and fixed rates could save a first-time buyer $150/month. (Mortgage News Daily)
New home sales fell 10.5% in July, hitting their lowest level since January. Affordability pressure is the driver. For Columbia-area builders competing with resale inventory, this signals weakening demand at current price points. Watch for builder incentives and rate buydowns to increase through Q4. If you represent new-build communities in Lexington or Northeast Richland, push your builder reps for updated concession packages now. (Mortgage News Daily, Fox Business, Construction Owners)
Home prices: modest gains, growing regional divide. Case-Shiller's national index rose 1.5% year-over-year in June, with FHFA showing 2.1%. The story is the gap: Chicago led at +6.9%, while Seattle fell 2.0% and Denver dropped 1.2%. The Southeast and Sun Belt are on the softer side of this divide. Columbia sellers should not assume appreciation is doing their pricing work for them. Overpricing by even 3-5% in this environment means extended DOM (Days on Market). (Mortgage News Daily)
FHA underwriting quality under scrutiny. MBA pushed back on Wall Street Journal claims linking UWM's capital needs to FHA portfolio stress. The numbers: 21% of UWM's recent FHA originations became seriously delinquent within 12 months, nearly double the 2022-2023 rate. FHA delinquencies overall are 11.79% in Q2 2026, up 122 bps year-over-year. The MMIF (Mutual Mortgage Insurance Fund) remains well-capitalized at 11.47%, but rising FHA stress means more properties cycling into distress pipelines. Columbia property managers and investors should watch local FHA-heavy neighborhoods (parts of Hopkins, Eau Claire, Lower Richland) for upticks in vacancies and distressed inventory. (HousingWire)
Rental screening tech evolving. The ROAD to Housing Act's tenant screening provisions and companies like Boom (rent reporting, applicant underwriting, agentic leasing) signal where the industry is headed. Columbia landlords managing 10+ doors should evaluate whether their screening vendor provides FICO and VantageScore coverage, especially with FHA's January 2027 multi-model rollout. Rent reporting is increasingly becoming a compliance path, not just a tenant perk. (Commercial Observer)
FHA adding VantageScore 4.0 and FICO 10T in January 2027. Classic FICO stays. Lenders must use the same model for all borrowers on a single application. No mixing. For Columbia loan officers and agents advising FHA buyers: this opens doors for borrowers with thin traditional credit files but strong alternative data (rent payments, utilities). Start conversations now with your preferred lenders about which model they plan to support and how it affects qualification for buyers in the $150K-$250K range. (HousingWire)
ROAD to Housing Act streamlines NEPA reviews. The new law expands categorical exclusions for small residential projects (5-15 units), exempts qualifying USDA-funded infill projects, and reduces duplicative environmental reviews. For Columbia builders working with HOME or USDA Rural Housing funds in Lexington County or outlying Richland County, this should shorten permitting timelines on small multifamily and rehab projects. Talk to your land use attorney about whether current pipeline projects qualify. (NAHB)
NGBS certification gaining traction as energy code compliance path. South Carolina builders can use National Green Building Standard (NGBS) Green certification as an alternative to increasingly strict IECC energy code requirements. Georgia already recognizes it in LIHTC (Low-Income Housing Tax Credit) QAPs (Qualified Allocation Plans). Fannie and Freddie offer preferential pricing for NGBS-certified multifamily. If you're developing affordable or workforce housing in the Columbia market, NGBS certification could unlock better loan terms and streamline permitting. (NAHB)
Real REMAX Group stops selling Motto Mortgage franchises. Following the $880M acquisition, the combined entity is building a unified mortgage platform instead. If you're a REMAX-affiliated agent in the Midlands, expect changes to mortgage referral workflows. Independent mortgage brokers in the market may see an opportunity as Motto exits. (RISMedia)