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Today: 30-year fixed rates held at 6.77%, pending home sales fell 2.3% nationally in July to their lowest level since January, and affordability pressures intensified in Q2 as typical families now need 36% of income to cover an existing home mortgage payment.
Pending home sales declined 2.3% in July and are now 2.2% below year-ago levels, reaching the lowest reading since January 2026, according to NAR. The decline reflects continued affordability pressure as elevated mortgage rates and record-high home prices keep buyers on the sidelines. Pending home sales nationally are 30% below 2019 levels despite payroll employment being 5% higher, signaling substantial pent-up demand waiting for affordability to improve.
The 30-year fixed rate held at 6.77% for top-tier borrowers last week, while the 15-year fixed declined slightly to 6.08%. Refinance activity increased 2% week-over-week but remained 18% below year-ago levels, with the average refinance loan size falling to $282,200 - the lowest since June 2025 - as borrowers with larger balances remain unlikely to refinance at current rates.
Housing affordability reversed course in Q2 after three consecutive quarters of improvement. A family earning the national median income of $106,800 now needs 34% of earnings to cover a mortgage payment on a median-priced new home, up from 32% in Q1. For existing homes, the burden is even higher at 36%. Low-income families (earning 50% of median) would need to spend 67% of income for a new home and 71% for an existing home. The deterioration was driven primarily by a sharp increase in median home prices from Q1 to Q2.
For Richland County sellers: expect longer marketing times and fewer above-ask offers compared to a year ago. For buyers: the pipeline of potential demand is substantial, but activation depends on affordability improving through either falling rates or rising incomes.
National housing starts data showed building permits increased in July, contributing to the NY Fed's upward revision of Q3 GDP growth to 2.3% from 2.1%. Monitor Richland County permit activity for early signals of inventory relief in specific submarkets.
CoStar closed its $800 million acquisition of Zonda, expanding the company's presence into new home construction data, homebuilder software, and residential marketplaces including NewHomeSource.com. The deal brings lot-level data covering new home communities, land development activity, construction status, and builder operations. For Columbia agents tracking new construction inventory and builder incentives, this consolidation may affect data access and marketplace visibility in coming quarters.
Builder confidence improved one point to 35 in August but remained below 40 for the 16th consecutive month. Current sales conditions rose to 39, while buyer traffic remained unchanged at 23. Builders continue offering pricing incentives, with 35% cutting prices (average reduction of 6%) and 63% offering sales incentives. Rising gas and diesel prices are pushing up material costs, while spec home building remains weak. Custom builders and smaller markets continue to outperform larger counterparts.
The 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act includes nine provisions to strengthen community banks by easing regulatory burdens and reducing funding costs. The changes are expected to expand builders' access to construction loans, particularly for small builders who depend on community banks. Federal banking agencies have until July 11, 2027 to implement the new rules.
A Missouri federal judge allowed RESPA kickback claims to proceed against Veterans United Home Loans, alleging that real estate agents in Veterans United Realty's referral network paid roughly 35% of commissions (about 1.05% of sale price) to Veterans United entities without receiving services in return. The court rejected the Section 2607(c) safe harbor defense at the pleading stage, finding that factual development in discovery is required. Review referral arrangements and fee-split agreements for RESPA compliance.