Columbia, SC Real Estate Brief

Today: Mortgage rates held at 6.83% as improved spreads keep the 7% ceiling intact despite geopolitical headwinds, and new Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac condo lending rules take effect tomorrow (Aug 3) that will add scrutiny to every condo transaction in the Midlands.

Market Pulse

Mortgage rates at 6.83%, but spreads are the story. National rates remain well below 7% despite the 10-year yield hitting 4.74%, a hawkish Fed, and escalating Iran tensions. The reason: mortgage spreads have compressed to 2%, down from the 2023 highs that would have put today's rate at 7.98%. For Columbia agents, this means buyer demand is still alive but softening. HousingWire's weekly pending sales data shows positive year-over-year growth nationally, though momentum has slowed since rates crossed above 6.64%. Richland County listings priced at the upper end of affordability thresholds should expect longer DOM as buyers recalculate monthly payments.

• Year-over-year pending sales growth remains positive nationally, but the pace is decelerating
• Wage growth has outpaced home-price appreciation for two consecutive years (national prices up only 1-2%), improving affordability
• If Iran tensions ease, expect a quick move back toward 6.5%; if they escalate further, rates could test 7.08-7.18% based on the author's 0.375-0.43% conflict premium estimate

Action: Counsel sellers to price competitively now while rates are still sub-7%. Buyers with pre-approvals at current rates should be reminded that spread compression is the tailwind keeping them in the market. Lock recommendations: float with caution only if geopolitical signals improve. (HousingWire)

Commercial & Investment

New Fannie/Freddie condo rules hit tomorrow (Aug 3). Starting Aug 3, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will require lenders to scrutinize condo association finances, reserve funding, and building maintenance for conforming loans. The "limited review" pathway that let smaller or lower-risk transactions skip deep association analysis is being eliminated. This affects every condo purchase in Columbia where the buyer needs a conforming mortgage, including units in the Vista, Congaree Vista conversions, and any aging condo stock near downtown or Forest Acres.

• Condo associations with underfunded reserves, deferred maintenance, or pending special assessments may see their buildings become effectively unfinanceable through Fannie/Freddie channels
• National median condo price: $380,000 (up 1.6% YoY) vs. $446,400 for single-family. Columbia condo pricing sits well below national medians, but the lending scrutiny applies regardless of price
• Mortgage wholesalers are warning of longer approval timelines and increased denials

Action: If you have condo listings or investor clients targeting condo stock in the Midlands, confirm the HOA's reserve study and financial health immediately. Associations that cannot demonstrate adequate reserves and maintenance histories will lose access to the conventional lending pool. Buyers under contract on condos should verify their lender has already begun the association review, as closings scheduled after Aug 3 will face the new standard. Portfolio lenders and credit unions that hold loans in-house become the fallback for buildings that fail Fannie/Freddie review. (CNBC)