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Today: 30-year conforming rates sit at 6.94% after Iran-driven volatility, Case-Shiller shows national prices up 1.1% YoY but momentum cooling with 12 consecutive months of negative real returns, and foreclosure auction volume hit a six-year high with FHA loans driving the surge.
Mortgage rates stuck near 7% as geopolitical risk persists. The 30-year conforming rate was 6.94% as of July 28, up from 6.23% before the Iran conflict escalated in late February. Brokers nationally report this swing will cost roughly 400,000 home sales this year. Bond markets showed a small rally Tuesday (10-year down 5.2bps to 4.603%) on early signals of a U.S./Iran ceasefire framework, but nothing confirmed. The Fed announces Wednesday. For Richland County agents: rate buydowns are outperforming price cuts. A permanent buydown is 2.5x more impactful to a buyer's payment than an equivalent price reduction. Push sellers toward concessions structured as buydowns rather than list price drops. Source | Bond recap
Case-Shiller: prices up but real returns negative for a full year. The national index rose 1.1% YoY through May, but after adjusting for 4.2% CPI, real home prices have declined for 12 straight months. The South posted the highest rental vacancy (9.5%) and homeowner vacancy (1.5%) of any region. Homeownership nationally held at 65.0%, but the under-35 cohort dropped to 35.2% from 36.4%, the only age group with a statistically significant decline. For Columbia listing agents: nominal price gains mask weakening fundamentals. If your sellers are pricing based on last year's comps without adjusting for buyer affordability, expect longer DOM and price reductions. Source | Homeownership data
New home sales weakest in years; multifamily driving starts. National new home sales plummeted to multi-year lows while multifamily completions, though down from 2024's 40-year high, still hit 484,000 units in 2025 with the South accounting for 45% (217,000 units). High-density buildings (50+ units) held 57% market share. Builder M&A is accelerating: 18% of builders report being approached for acquisition, double the rate from August 2025. For Columbia developers: the national builder consolidation wave (Taylor Morrison/Berkshire Hathaway, Tri Pointe/Sumitomo) could push larger operators into mid-tier SE markets like the Midlands. Watch for new entrants competing for lots in Lexington County and Northeast Richland. Source: New sales | Builder M&A | Multifamily starts
Foreclosure auctions hit six-year high, FHA loans leading. Completed foreclosure auctions reached 66% of Q1 2020 levels in Q2, up 23% YoY. The key data point: loans originated in 2022 or later now account for 45% of all foreclosure auctions, more than double from a year ago. FHA loans hit 95% of pre-pandemic levels (up 47% YoY), and VA loans exceeded pre-pandemic volume at 106%. Buyer demand is strong: the foreclosure auction sales rate hit 114% of its pre-pandemic benchmark, and buyers paid an average of 66.5% of estimated retail value. Georgia is specifically called out as a high-volume state. For Richland County investors: the 2022-vintage FHA distress wave is arriving. Screen Auction.com and local courthouse steps for properties with these characteristics. The bid-to-value ratio at 66.5% leaves room for rehab margins if your ARV assumptions are conservative. Source
Opportunity Zones now permanent, new zone selection happening now. OZ 2.0 offers improved terms: permanent deferral (rolling five-year windows starting Jan 2027), a 30% gain reduction for rural zones (vs. 10% standard), and easier improvement tests (50% basis increase for rural vs. 100% for standard). First-generation zones remain effective through end of 2028, overlapping with new zones. Governors are nominating zones to Treasury now, with certification expected September/October. For Columbia investors: SC has multiple census tracts that qualified under OZ 1.0. If you have a preferred site in Richland or Lexington County, contact the governor's office before the nomination window closes. The rural zone designation (under 50,000 population, not adjacent to metro) could apply to areas around Blythewood, Chapin, or eastern Lexington County. Deals must pencil without the OZ benefit; the tax treatment is upside, not underwriting. Source
Multifamily lending active at scale. Mesa West Capital originated $800M in short-term debt in H1 2026 alone, including an $81M refi on a 330-unit Denver complex that hit 85% occupancy by Q2 of its opening year. Welltower invested $9.5B across the U.S., Canada, and U.K. since January, with FFO jumping to $1.60/share from $1.28 YoY. These capital flows signal that institutional appetite for multifamily and senior housing remains strong despite rate headwinds. For Columbia multifamily operators: short-term bridge debt is available for well-leased assets. If you're holding stabilized product with strong occupancy, the refi market is functioning. Source: Mesa West | Welltower
Affordable housing collections vary wildly by market, legislation catching up. Yardi Matrix data shows realized revenue in affordable housing ranged from 96.8% (Miami) to 70.9% (D.C.) in May 2026, with a typical large market collecting 88.6% of scheduled rent. Post-eviction-moratorium behavior is still depressing collections in jurisdictions with slow courts. D.C. recently enacted legislation streamlining nonpayment proceedings after recognizing prolonged delinquency threatened affordable housing preservation. For Columbia PMs: SC's landlord-friendly eviction timeline is a competitive advantage for affordable housing operators compared to states with years-long processes. Underwrite collection rates conservatively (90-92% for LIHTC/Section 8 portfolios) but recognize SC outperforms many peer markets on realized revenue. Source
Condo financing tightening: limited review eliminated, reserves rising. FHFA ended the "limited review" process for condos nationwide and raised required condo association reserves from 10% to 15%, effective January 1, 2027. This pushes many condo buildings out of the conforming market and into non-QM (typically capped at 90% LTV). For Columbia agents with condo listings: audit your condo associations' reserve levels now. Buildings below 15% reserves will lose Fannie/Freddie eligibility in six months. Buyers in condos that can't clear full review will face higher rates and larger down payments. Price adjustments for affected buildings should start appearing in comps by Q4. Source
NAR settlement administrator faces court-ordered audit. Judge Bough appointed two special masters to audit JND Legal Administration's billing in the Burnett/Gibson commission lawsuits. JND billed the class $34.96M across 55 invoices between January 2024 and October 2025. The company was previously accused of participating in a kickback scheme with banks (denied). Plaintiffs' lawyers disclosed they had no signed contract with JND. This is a governance story, not a practice-change story, but it signals continued federal scrutiny of how settlement funds are managed. No immediate action required for SC agents, but the broader commission litigation framework remains under active judicial oversight. Source
Housing affordability policy: supply alone won't fix it. A detailed open letter to FHFA, HUD, CFPB, and Congress argues that with inventory already near five months of supply nationally, affordability is now a payment capacity problem, not a supply problem. The qualified income needed to buy the median home far exceeds actual median household income. Property taxes are up 27% since 2019, insurance 24-64%, and HOA dues 25-30%. The letter proposes optional prepayment penalties for lower rates, LLPA reductions, and other payment-focused levers. For Columbia market watchers: this framing matters. The Midlands has better affordability than coastal SC, but the same non-price cost pressures (insurance, taxes) are compressing buyer budgets. When counseling buyers, model the full PITI plus insurance increases, not just principal and interest. Source