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Today: National pending sales are barely positive year over year at 70,748 vs. 70,609, mortgage rates sit at 6.81% with spreads keeping them below 7%, and June new-home sales beat estimates at 628,000 units. The growth slowdown is real but not yet a reversal.
National demand positive but cooling, and Columbia feels it. Weekly pending home sales came in at 70,748 for the week, edging out last year's 70,609. Total pending contracts stand at 396,759 vs. 384,307 a year ago. The growth is still there but decelerating fast. Mortgage purchase applications posted a 6% week-over-week bounce (seasonal recovery from the July 4th dip), but year-over-year growth was just 0.2%.
For Columbia agents: the national slowdown pattern is clear. When rates stay below 6.64%, demand holds; above that threshold, activity fades. Rates closed last week at 6.81%, which puts us in the friction zone. Richland County listings that have been sitting 30+ days need a pricing conversation now, not in September. If you have buyers pre-approved at sub-7% locks, push them to act before spreads widen further. Source
Mortgage spreads are the only reason we're not at 8%. Current spreads sit at 1.94%, down slightly from 1.97%. At 2023's worst spread levels, today's rates would be 7.98% instead of 6.81%. That 117-basis-point cushion has kept Columbia's market functional all year. If Iran conflict escalation pushes the 10-year yield higher and spreads stop compressing, the math changes fast. The Fed meets this week; watch for language on the geopolitical risk premium. Source
June new-home sales beat expectations. National new-home sales hit 628,000 annualized units vs. the 610,000 estimate. For the Midlands, this confirms builders are still moving inventory, likely through rate buydowns and incentives. If you're competing against new construction in Northeast Columbia or Lexington, your resale clients need to know what builder concessions are on the table. Match or differentiate on inspection flexibility and closing timeline. Source
Slowing demand creates deal opportunities. With year-over-year growth at near-zero and rates in the friction zone, expect expired listings and price reductions to tick up over the next 30-60 days (the lag from this week's pending data). Investor clients should be watching DOM trends in 29201, 29203, and 29072 for properties crossing the 45-day mark. Sellers who listed in May at aggressive prices will be ready for a reset conversation by mid-August. Use the pending sales data as the evidence: national growth went from double digits earlier this year to 0.2%. The urgency argument is gone; negotiate accordingly.
Builder confidence vs. rate reality. The 628,000 new-home sales figure suggests builders are still finding buyers, but the mechanism matters. National builders are buying down rates to the 5s, effectively subsidizing demand. For Columbia multifamily and small commercial investors, the takeaway: cap rate (annual net operating income divided by purchase price) expectations need to reflect 6.8%+ financing costs. Any deal underwritten at sub-6% debt is stale. Adjust your models or wait for better entry points. The spread compression that kept this market alive could reverse if geopolitical risk intensifies.
Note: Two articles on building permits (Aberdeen, SD and Tulsa, OK) were excluded as irrelevant to the Columbia/Midlands market.