Columbia, SC Real Estate Brief

Today: 30-year fixed rates matched their 2026 high at 6.75% for the third time this year, driven by fuel-price spikes and earnings-season bond selling. New home sales fell for a second straight month with cancellations spiking 50%, and D.R. Horton cut its closing forecast while holding margin. Institutional landlords have doubled their for-sale listings since February after the ROAD to Housing Act banned large investors from buying single-family rentals.

Market Pulse

• Rates hit 6.75% again. The 30-year fixed matched its May 19 high for the third time in 2026, per Mortgage News Daily. MBA's weekly average sits at 6.69%. The driver: August gasoline futures hit their May highs, and earnings-season money rotation pulled capital out of bonds. For Richland County listings sitting past 30 DOM, this kills any hope of a summer rate dip rescuing buyer traffic. Adjust seller expectations accordingly; rate buydowns and concessions are the play right now. (Mortgage News Daily, CNBC, MBS Recap, MBS Morning)

• Buyer activity ticked up despite higher rates. MBA purchase applications rose 6% week-over-week, flat year-over-year. Buyers are taking advantage of less competition and price cuts during the slower summer months. In the Columbia metro, growing inventory gives purchase-ready buyers negotiating leverage. Agents representing buyers should push for concessions now; agents representing sellers should price sharply to capture the smaller but active buyer pool. (CNBC)

• New home sales fell for a second straight month; cancellations spiked 50%. Traffic exists but confidence is fragile. D.R. Horton, the nation's largest builder, cut its FY2026 closing forecast to 83,800-84,300 homes (down from 86,000-87,000) while holding gross margin at 20.7% by choosing profit over volume. Cancellation rates hit 20%. For Columbia-area new construction in northeast Richland and Lexington County, expect builders to increase incentive packages (rate buydowns, closing cost credits) to move standing inventory. Resale sellers competing against new builds need to match or beat those incentives. (mpamag.com, HousingWire)

• Seller concessions at near-record levels. Redfin data shows 46.2% of U.S. home sales this spring included seller concessions, one of the highest shares on record. 15.7% of sales now combine a concession and a price reduction. With 48.5% more sellers than buyers nationally, Columbia listing agents should proactively recommend concession strategies (closing cost credits, rate buydowns, repair credits) rather than waiting for buyer requests. A 2-1 buydown that costs the seller $8K can be more effective than an equivalent price cut. (Redfin)

• Multifamily starts boosted June construction activity. National multifamily housing starts rose in June. For Columbia investors watching the BRT (build-to-rent) pipeline along Bluff Road and Garners Ferry, new multifamily supply will pressure rents in Class B/C segments over the next 18-24 months. Factor that into underwriting on any Midlands multifamily acquisition. (Floor Covering News)

• Senior housing wealth hit a record $14.92 trillion in Q1. Homeowners 62+ saw a $314.8 billion gain driven by rising values and slow mortgage-debt growth. For Columbia agents working with downsizers in Irmo, Chapin, and Lake Murray, this is ammunition for listing conversations: your clients are sitting on record equity. Present reverse mortgage alternatives and downsizing scenarios with real numbers. (HousingWire)

Deal Flow

• Institutional investors doubling their for-sale listings. The ROAD to Housing Act banned investors with 350+ homes from buying single-family rentals. Since February, institutional listings have jumped from 4,166 to 9,447 homes nationally ($3.1 billion asking). Charlotte is one of the top six concentration metros, and spillover inventory could reach the Columbia market. VineBrook has 10% of its portfolio (1,900 homes, $285M) listed for sale. Watch for institutional dispositions in West Columbia and Cayce, where large landlords have concentrated holdings. These are likely to trade to mid-sized investors (12-50 doors), not owner-occupants, but could still soften prices in those submarkets. (CNBC, HousingWire)

• Florida leads nation in foreclosure rate for H1 2026. South Carolina is not in the headline, but Midlands investors who source deals from foreclosure and REO channels should watch whether the national uptick eventually touches SC. Richland County's foreclosure volume remains modest, but any softening in borrower confidence at these rate levels could change that by Q4. (Florida Politics)

Commercial & Investment

• Multifamily acquisition opportunity window. Cap rates nationally are at some of the highest levels in years. Marcus & Millichap's John Chang called it the best buying opportunity since the GFC. For Columbia metro Class B/C multifamily (the 20-80 unit complexes along Two Notch, Broad River, and in Cayce), private investors are driving 66% of transaction volume nationally. If you have capital and operational capacity, this is the window to acquire before rate cuts compress cap rates again. Underwrite conservatively on rent growth (1% nationally), but the basis you can buy at today is strong. (Commercial Observer)

Property Management & Rentals

• Institutional sell-off creates management opportunity. As large landlords exit under the ROAD Act, mid-sized investors acquiring those portfolios will need local property management. Columbia PMs should position to capture incoming scattered-site SFR portfolios, particularly if VineBrook or similar operators list Midlands holdings. Pitch management services to the buyer side of these transactions. (CNBC)

Industry & Legal

• Property tax ballot measures sweeping six states. Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Louisiana, and Wyoming all have property tax reduction measures on November ballots. South Carolina is not on this list, but NC's measure is worth watching. If NC reduces property tax burdens while SC does not, that sharpens the competitive disadvantage for border-market sellers in Lancaster and York counties trying to compete with Charlotte-area pricing. (CNBC)

• New Canadian tariffs threaten construction costs. Trump announced potential 50% tariffs on Canadian goods. Softwood lumber already carries a 34.83% tariff (Canada supplies 74% of U.S. lumber imports). Cement, doors, HVAC equipment, and glass could face additional levies. For Columbia builders, lumber costs are the main exposure. Any increase flows directly into new construction pricing in subdivisions across Lexington County and Blythewood. Builders are already margin-constrained (D.R. Horton holding at 20.7%); further cost pressure means either higher home prices or fewer starts. (HousingWire)

• FHA proposes Reinstatement Advance Payment (RAP) to replace subordinate liens. The new structure eliminates zero-interest subordinate mortgages for partial claims, instead adding a non-interest-bearing balance to the existing first mortgage. For Columbia loan officers and servicers handling FHA loss mitigation, this simplifies the process significantly: no more recording separate notes and mortgages. The demonstration is voluntary, runs five years, and includes $500-$1,750 incentive fees. Servicers should evaluate early adoption. (HousingWire)

• Equifax locks in $1 VantageScore through 2027. About 1,200 mortgage lenders are now pulling free VantageScore alongside FICO, with 100 lenders using VantageScore exclusively (primarily for HELOCs and home equity). FHFA activated VantageScore 4.0 in April. Columbia originators should evaluate VantageScore adoption for cost savings, especially on HELOC and home equity products where the score is already accepted. (HousingWire)