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Today: Single-family housing starts fell nationwide in June while building permits hit a 10-month low, signaling fewer new construction listings ahead for Richland County. Mortgage rates held above 6.64% last week, the threshold where buyer demand historically weakens. Multifamily starts surged 19%, but single-family activity dropped, tightening inventory for the Columbia market through fall.
Single-family housing starts declined in June while building permits fell 3.0%, reaching the lowest level in 10 months. Reuters, TradingView, Seeking Alpha For Columbia, this means fewer new construction options coming to market in the next 6-12 months. Single-family permits are the leading indicator for what shows up on MLS next year. If your buyer pool includes new construction shoppers, start preparing them now for tighter inventory and potential price increases as builders pull back on starts.
Overall housing starts jumped 19% in June to 1.427 million units, beating the 1.310 million estimate. Seeking Alpha, MSN, TradingView The rebound was driven entirely by multifamily construction, not single-family homes. MSN, Xinhua For Richland County, this split matters. Multifamily supply grows (more rental competition), but single-family inventory stays constrained. If you represent landlords, watch for rent softening as new apartment projects deliver. If you represent buyers, the lack of single-family starts means continued competition for resale inventory.
Mortgage rates stayed above 6.64% most of last week, the historical threshold where housing demand weakens. HousingWire Pending sales turned negative year over year for the first time in months, and purchase applications dropped 2% compared to last year. The Iran conflict escalation and hawkish Federal Reserve statements are keeping rates elevated. For Columbia agents, this means pre-approvals need closer scrutiny. Buyers qualified at 6.25% three months ago may not clear underwriting at 6.64% today. Run updated scenarios now before showing properties.
Mortgage spreads remain at 1.97%, well above the historical 1.60%-1.80% range. HousingWire If spreads were at 2023 levels, rates would be 7.77% today instead of 6.63%. Current spreads are the only reason demand has not collapsed entirely. This is a fragile equilibrium. If spreads widen further or the 10-year yield climbs, rates could break 7% quickly. Advise buyers to lock rates when quoted, not wait for a better number that may not materialize.
D.R. Horton reported slower new-home sales and steeper incentives. simplywall.st National builders are offering concessions to move inventory. For Columbia, check what DR Horton, Mungo Homes, and Eastwood Homes are doing locally in Blythewood, Lexington, and Northeast Columbia developments. If they are matching national trends with rate buydowns or closing cost credits, resale comps need to account for these effective price reductions. Your seller pricing strategy should reflect what buyers can get new with incentives.
No local deal flow articles today. The national data above signals reduced single-family permit activity, which typically translates to fewer spec homes hitting the market as distressed inventory in 6-12 months. Watch for builders who started projects at higher rates and may need to exit quickly if sales slow further. Those become negotiation opportunities for investor clients who can close fast.
No commercial or multifamily investment articles specific to Columbia today. The national multifamily surge (19% increase in starts) suggests more rental competition arriving in the next 12-18 months. For Richland County investors evaluating new multifamily acquisitions, factor in upcoming supply when projecting rent growth and stabilization timelines. Markets with heavy apartment construction pipelines will see rent pressure before those without.