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July 5, 2026
Today: Mortgage spreads remain the unsung hero keeping sales positive despite rates near 6.60%, national pending sales up 6.3% year over year, and the 10-year yield stuck at 4.49% as Fed policy rhetoric stays hawkish.
Mortgage rates held at 6.60% last week with the 10-year yield closing at 4.49%, but the real story is spreads. Mortgage spreads (the gap between the 10-year Treasury and mortgage rates) compressed to 2.01%, down from 2.03% the prior week. That spread compression is the difference between viable market conditions and a freeze. HousingWire reports that if 2023's worst spread levels (over 3%) applied today, mortgage rates would be 7.70% instead of 6.60%. If 2024's worst spreads applied, rates would be 7.32%. That 110-170 basis point cushion is why pending sales are tracking positive year over year (71,173 weekly pending sales in 2026 vs 66,967 in 2025, up 6.3%) instead of cratering.
For Richland County agents: this means rates near 6.60% are workable, especially for move-up buyers with equity to deploy. The Fed meets in a few weeks, and if hawks turn to doves, the 10-year yield could drop from the 4.46%-4.49% range it has been stuck in. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack signaled last week that lower oil prices (currently $68) might complicate inflation expectations, which is keeping yields firm. Watch for Fed commentary shifts. If spreads tighten another 20-30 basis points and the 10-year drops to 4.20%, rates could touch 6.20%-6.30%, which historically opens up another buyer cohort.
National context matters here because Richland County inventory has been tight (sub-2 months in recent weeks based on local MLS snapshots). Lower rates would pull fence-sitters off the sidelines, but supply constraints mean any demand spike will compress DOM (Days on Market) and push prices up. If you have sellers considering listing in late summer, the message is: spreads are your friend, but don't count on a rate collapse to bail out overpriced listings. Price it right for 6.50%-6.75% money.
Building permit data from other markets (Aberdeen, Midland, Albuquerque) appeared in today's feeds but lacked detail. Richland County's June permit activity will be reported later this month. Watch for residential permit counts as a leading indicator of inventory relief in Q4 2026 and early 2027.
The jobs report last week was mixed (job openings beat estimates, ADP missed slightly, jobless claims stayed low, but Jobs Friday missed with negative revisions), yet the 10-year yield didn't budge. Bond traders are pricing in restrictive policy risk, which means the Fed's next meeting matters. HousingWire's analysis suggests that policy commentary from Fed officials will drive the next move in yields more than the economic data itself.
For local practice: SCREC's new commission disclosure form takes effect next week (noted in prior briefings). Ensure every listing and buyer representation agreement uses the updated form. NAR settlement compliance deadlines are still rolling out nationally, so double-check that your brokerage's templates are current.
Note: Today's feed collection yielded limited Columbia-specific data. National trends (mortgage spreads, pending sales growth, Fed policy positioning) provide the strategic context for local market decisions. Expect more granular Midlands data as July permit reports and MLS snapshots publish later this month.