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July 2, 2026
Today: Mortgage rates jumped to 6.54% on quarter-end selling, Subtext and PGIM announced a mixed-use development in Columbia, and McGuinn Homes (a 40-year Columbia builder) sold to Berkshire's Clayton amid warnings that consolidation will price independent builders out of the market.
Mortgage rates moved higher this week, climbing to 6.54% as of Tuesday following heavy bond market selling at quarter-end. Mortgage News Daily reports the average lender is up 0.11% from Monday morning, putting rates back in line with early-week highs. The move came despite oil prices falling under $69, with Fed hawks now pushing for rate hikes instead of cuts. Minneapolis Fed President Neil Kashkari penciled in one rate hike for 2026, while Cleveland Fed's Beth Hammack acknowledged the Fed is "too restrictive for housing" but said lower oil prices could boost inflation, not ease it. For Richland County, this means 6.50% to 6.75% remains the realistic base for 30-year fixed rates absent a Fed pivot. HousingWire explains why rates aren't falling with oil, noting 65% to 75% of mortgage rate movement is driven by Fed policy, which has shifted hawkish. The jobs report this week will test how bond markets react to positive or negative data.
National inventory data shows active listings climbed 2.2% year over year, holding above 1.1 million properties for the second consecutive week (the first time since July 2025). Realtor.com's weekly update reports new listings rose 1.6% year over year for the fourth straight week, with homes spending the same time on market as last year. This marks a shift from February when homes lingered 11% longer. Median list prices fell 2.3% year over year, but prices have held flat in absolute terms for three straight weeks, suggesting a floor is established. Price reductions came in 6% below last year despite asking prices only 2% below, indicating sellers are pricing more realistically upfront. For Columbia agents, this means buyers are finding opportunities in markets with ample inventory, but rate headwinds remain the binding constraint on purchase activity.
Purchase applications are showing steady year-over-year growth, according to MBA's latest report via RISMedia. Purchase applications increased 3% year over year for the third consecutive month, with prospective buyers finding opportunities in markets with "ample inventory and easing home-price growth." The unadjusted Purchase Index was 3% higher than the same week last year. The refinance share dropped to 41.4%, and ARM share fell to 7.6% (the lowest since January) as the yield curve continues to flatten. If you have clients sitting on the fence, point them to properties with realistic pricing. The buyers who are active now are the ones moving.
No USC-specific articles today, but the broader student housing fundamentals remain strong. USC enrollment drives off-campus demand in Five Points and the Vista, with the fall semester starting in 8 weeks. Fort Jackson PCS cycles continue to create rental turnover in the northeast Columbia submarkets. Reach out to landlords with properties near campus or Fort Jackson to lock in August move-ins now before rates climb further or inventory tightens.
Building permit activity was mixed in national data, but the Greenville market issued $40 million in permits last month (97.5 Glory FM), signaling continued developer confidence in upstate South Carolina markets. While this data is Greenville-specific, it tracks with broader Upstate trends that often precede activity in the Midlands. Watch for Richland County permit data over the next two weeks. If permit volume is lagging, that's a leading indicator of tighter inventory six to nine months out.
Berkadia arranged the sale of Villas at Lawson Creek in Boiling Springs (Spartanburg County) (Multifamily & Affordable Housing Business). Multifamily transactions are active in secondary South Carolina markets. If you have investor clients looking at Midlands multifamily, now is the time to source deals before cap rate compression accelerates.
Subtext and PGIM are building a mixed-use development in Columbia (Multifamily & Affordable Housing Business). No project details are public yet, but this signals institutional capital is deploying in Columbia. Mixed-use projects typically combine residential, retail, and office, which means foot traffic and anchor tenants will drive lease-up. If you have commercial clients looking for Columbia exposure, track this project's entitlements and lease announcements. First-mover tenants often secure favorable terms.
McGuinn Homes, a Columbia-based builder with 40 years of history, sold to Berkshire Hathaway's Clayton Home Building Group (via Mungo Homes). HousingWire has the full story. McGuinn grew from $80 million to $200 million in revenue over seven years (200 to 1,000 homes annually) but founder Wade McGuinn decided to exit, warning that consolidation is creating a "tsunami" where scale will price independent builders out of the market. "M&A, which is creating scale, gets to a point where they can just price everybody left out of the market," he said. "Not everybody's going to be acquired, but everybody is going to go away." For Columbia agents, this means your builder relationships are changing. National platforms backed by institutional capital (Berkshire, TPG, Harvest Capital) are absorbing regional independents. If you work with small builders, ask them what their 10-year plan looks like. If they're planning to sell, lock in allocations now before the buyer renegotiates agent terms.
Harvest Capital and TPG closed a $600 million recapitalization for Metro Development Group, a Florida master-planned community developer (HousingWire). The deal finances 10 master-planned communities in Florida and funds Southeast expansion. This is part of a $2.1 billion platform that has financed 120 projects and 45,000 residential lots since 2021. Nonbank capital providers are filling the gap as commercial banks pull back from acquisition and development lending. For Columbia investors, this means lot financing is available if you can structure nonrecourse deals with credit funds. Reach out to Harvest or similar platforms if you have land plays in high-growth Midlands submarkets.
REITs are getting a second look as safe haven assets, according to Commercial Observer. The FTSE Nareit Equity REIT Index delivered positive returns year-to-date even as broader equity markets faced volatility. The article argues commercial real estate is bifurcated: overleveraged office with short lease durations on one side, essential-use properties with long-duration leases and high-credit tenants on the other. The latter are "undervalued relative to performance" and offer "durable cash flows" across economic cycles. For Columbia investors, this means net-lease properties with investment-grade tenants (Walgreens, Dollar General, medical office) are attracting institutional capital. If you have clients looking to exit single-tenant retail, now is a good time to test the market.
Oregon reached a $7 million settlement with LivCor, a large property management company, over rent pricing software that artificially inflated rents (Rental Housing Journal). LivCor used RealPage's software, which collects sensitive rental data from competing landlords to train an algorithm that recommends rental rates. The settlement bars LivCor from using RealPage or any revenue management software that uses competitor pricing data, and requires an antitrust compliance program. This is the second settlement in the multistate lawsuit (Greystar settled for $7 million in November). If you manage multifamily in Columbia, review your rent-setting tools. Software that shares competitive pricing data or uses rival landlord data to recommend rents is now a regulatory target. Stick to market comps and public data sources.
Michael Gut, a NYC landlord, argues that building trust with tenants is the most underrated skill in property management (Resident Magazine). This is soft-skill advice but worth noting: tenant retention saves vacancy costs, turnover costs, and legal costs. Columbia landlords managing student housing or Fort Jackson rentals should prioritize responsiveness and maintenance follow-through. High turnover markets make trust-building even more valuable.
AI-generated deed fraud is escalating in Florida, which the article calls the "title fraud capital of the world" (HousingWire). Fraudsters use deepfake impersonation, voice cloning, forged signatures, and phishing attacks to transfer property titles. Vulnerable targets include nonresident owners, seniors, vacant homes, and properties with delinquent taxes. Florida law distinguishes between "void" deeds (forged signatures, void at inception, can be quieted) and "voidable" deeds (tricked owner signed a valid deed, may convey legal title to bona fide purchasers). South Carolina property owners should monitor their deeds, especially if they own vacant land or rental properties they don't visit regularly. Title companies are adding fraud monitoring services. Ask your title rep what protections they offer.
Consumer groups asked the FTC and DOJ to investigate Compass's new agreements with multiple MLSs, arguing the deals expand "pocket listing" networks that harm competition and fair housing (HousingWire). Compass reached a deal with Midwest Real Estate Data (MRED) in April to expand MRED's Private Listing Network nationwide, with subsequent deals with Bright MLS, Realtracs, and MLS/CLAW. Private listing systems allow homes to be marketed to a limited pool of agents and buyers rather than broadly across MLSs and public portals. The letter notes Zillow research found homes in majority-white neighborhoods in Chicago were disproportionately marketed through private channels compared to majority non-white areas, raising "digital redlining" concerns. This is a compliance risk. If you list properties off-MLS in Columbia, document your fair housing compliance. SCREC and the DOJ are watching.
The Working Families Tax Cuts (the One Big Beautiful Bill Act) hit its one-year anniversary on July 4 (NAHB Now). The law permanently extended the 2017 tax cuts and delivered tax relief for working families and small businesses. Key provisions for real estate: full expensing (100% bonus depreciation) restored for business investments after January 19, 2025; Section 179 limits increased for small business expensing; Section 460(e) Completed Contract rules expanded to include condominiums (builders aren't taxed on deposits during construction); increased standard deduction ($31,500 married, $15,750 single for 2025); SALT deduction cap temporarily increased to $40,000 (2025-2029); no tax on tips and overtime (up to $25,000 tips, $12,500 overtime); and private mortgage insurance premiums are deductible starting in 2026. For Columbia investors and builders, this means bonus depreciation is back, condo deposits aren't taxable during construction, and PMI is deductible next year. Run the numbers with your CPA.
The mortgage market is misreading retiree borrowers, according to HousingWire's analysis. Borrowers aged 60 to 69 are 1.5% more likely to be rejected than younger applicants; those over 70 face a 2.7% higher denial rate. This doesn't reflect elevated credit risk but a measurement framework that doesn't account for how wealth is held in retirement. U.S. retirement assets reached $49.1 trillion at the end of 2025, and 4.2 million Americans turned 65 that year. Asset depletion lending addresses this by calculating synthetic monthly income from liquid assets, but GSE guidelines divide assets over 360 months (producing low qualifying income) while non-QM lenders use 60 months (producing six times that figure). For Columbia loan officers, this means retirees with $1.2 million in liquid assets but low documented income need non-QM products. Don't run them through conventional underwriting and wonder why they got denied.