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June 18, 2026
Today: Housing starts crashed 15.4% in May to pandemic lows while pending sales climbed 3.8% nationally. Mortgage rates spiked back to 6.62% after the Fed meeting. Building permits authorized but not yet started jumped 4.7%, signaling delayed construction as builders watch inflation and borrowing costs.
National pending home sales rose 3.8% month-over-month and 4.8% year-over-year in May, driven by what NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun calls "pent-up housing demand and consumers' acceptance of above-6% mortgage rates as the new normal." The Midwest led regional gains with 9.3% annual growth, followed by the Northeast at 6.1%. Sellers are pricing more realistically, with listing prices down 2.4% nationally and price reductions declining as inventory gets absorbed. NAR Pending Home Sales, Realtor.com Analysis
For Richland County agents, this means buyers are moving despite rate pressure. Focus on well-priced listings and sellers willing to meet the market. The recent ceasefire with Iran has already pushed oil prices lower, which should ease inflation pressure and bring modest mortgage rate relief over the summer.
Mortgage rates reversed a week of progress after the June 17 Fed meeting, jumping from 6.37% to 6.62% as new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's dot plot showed the Fed Funds rate at least 0.25% higher by year-end than March projections. The hawkish tone and reduced transparency on rate policy forced traders to price in higher risk. Rates remain below year-ago levels but volatility is back. Mortgage News Daily, MND Market Recap
Lock clients immediately when rates dip. This Fed is less predictable than the previous administration, and rate swings can kill deals that aren't locked.
Housing starts plunged 15.4% in May to 1.177 million units, the lowest level since 2020, falling well short of the 1.430 million estimate. Builder confidence is cracking under sustained inflation and high borrowing costs. However, building permits authorized but not yet started rose 4.7% to 265,000 units, indicating builders are pulling permits but delaying groundbreaking until they see clearer economic signals. TradingView Housing Data, Benzinga
For Columbia metro, this means new construction supply will remain tight through at least Q3. Buyers looking for new builds should expect longer timelines and limited negotiating leverage. Investor clients eyeing fix-and-flip should watch for increased material availability as stalled projects free up supply chains.
Active inventory climbed 2.0% year-over-year nationally, extending a streak of supply growth since November 2023, with more than 300,000 additional homes listed compared to last year. The market is holding above 1 million active listings. Days on market stabilized at year-ago levels for the third consecutive week after running 11% longer in February. Sellers are adjusting to market reality and pricing accordingly. Realtor.com Weekly Trends
In Richland and Lexington counties, this confirms what local agents are seeing: inventory is no longer the crisis it was in 2021-2022, but absorption is steady. Homes priced within 5% of comps are moving. Overpriced listings are sitting, not accumulating showings.
The U.S. median home sale price hit $400,894 as of June 2026, up 1.5% year-over-year and 30% higher than five years ago. Average down payments dropped to 15% ($64,000) as buyers hold onto cash reserves in an uncertain economy. The market is an expensive buyer's market in most areas, meaning more homes for sale than buyers but prices remain elevated. Seller concessions are back in play as negotiation leverage shifts. Redfin Cost Analysis
Columbia agents should coach first-time buyers on seller concessions as a strategy to reduce closing costs when down payment funds are tight. In a buyer's market with high prices, concessions are the path to affordability without waiting for price drops that aren't coming.
Low appraisals are creating deal friction as appraisers lag behind contract prices in rising markets or use stale comps. Buyers have four main options: renegotiate the purchase price to match the appraisal, cover the gap in cash, challenge the appraisal with better comps, or walk away using the appraisal contingency. Agents should prepare clients by pulling strong comps before the appraisal and addressing any condition issues that could lower value. Redfin Low Appraisal Guide
For Columbia metro, where prices have appreciated faster than surrounding rural markets, appraisals are a landmine in transitional neighborhoods like Earlewood or Olympia. Pull comps from the immediate area, not countywide. If an appraisal comes in low, submit a reconsideration of value with sales from the last 60 days within a half-mile radius before renegotiating price.
Beverly Hills-based Hawkins Way Capital acquired 81 East Third Street in New York's East Village for $28 million, a 45-unit mixed-use building with student housing and market-rate apartments. The student housing portion remains intact. The firm has been active in the student housing sector, with $3 billion in assets under management and multiple recent acquisitions including dormitory properties near CUNY and other urban campuses. Commercial Observer
While this is a New York deal, it signals continued institutional appetite for student housing near major universities. USC's stable enrollment and off-campus housing demand around Five Points and Shandon make Columbia's student housing market a comparable opportunity for local multifamily investors. Cap rates on stabilized student housing in college towns are compressing as institutional capital chases yield.
PNC Bank closed a $251.4 million Low-Income Housing Tax Credit (LIHTC) fund supporting 16 multifamily properties and more than 1,700 affordable rental homes across 11 states including North Carolina, Tennessee, and Virginia. Fund 104 combines new construction and rehabilitation projects targeting families, seniors, and underserved households. Seven properties will offer rental assistance to stabilize cash flow and maintain long-term affordability. HousingWire
For Columbia developers and investors, LIHTC remains the primary vehicle for affordable housing development. PNC's continued appetite for Southeast properties suggests deal flow is available for local projects meeting LIHTC underwriting standards. Partner with experienced tax credit syndicators early in the planning process.
NAR is promoting Opportunity Zones 2.0 legislation at the State and Local Issues Forum, expanding tax-advantaged investment zones created in the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. The program allows capital gains deferral and elimination for long-term investments in designated low-income census tracts. Columbia has multiple Opportunity Zones in the Lower Richland and North Main corridors. NAR via Google News
If OZ 2.0 legislation passes, investors with unrealized capital gains should explore deferred tax strategies in Columbia's designated zones before deploying capital into standard commercial deals. Partner with a tax advisor familiar with Opportunity Zone structures.
A record 25.2 million adults under 35 lived with their parents in 2025, the highest level on record. At 33.0%, the share of young adults living at home is just below the 2020 pandemic peak of 33.6%. The trend is driven by housing costs, not jobs: 70% of adults aged 25-34 at home are employed. A supply gap of 4 million units and median home listing prices 34% above pre-pandemic levels make independent living financially unworkable for millions. Realtor.com Analysis
For Columbia landlords and property managers, this means the 25-34 age cohort is a critical rental market. These are employed renters who can't afford to buy and are aging out of parental housing. Target marketing to this group with move-in concessions, flexible lease terms, and roommate-friendly floor plans. USC graduates staying in Columbia for employment are prime candidates.
Three Virginia congressional representatives (Jennifer McClellan, Don Beyer, Ben Cline) have sent letters to the FTC requesting investigation into listing portal practices, specifically Zillow's "lead diversion" model. The letters claim that "contact agent" and "request tour" buttons direct buyers to platform-affiliated agents without clear disclosure of financial relationships, potentially driving up transaction costs. Zillow denies the claims and disputes that consumers were harmed. The bipartisan scrutiny suggests continued regulatory pressure on portal business models. RISMedia
For Columbia agents, this is a reminder to disclose any referral relationships with listing platforms, mortgage lenders, or affiliated services. Transparency protects both the client and the agent. If you're receiving leads from Zillow, realtor.com, or other portals, ensure your buyer consultation agreements clearly state how you were connected and whether referral fees are involved.
NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun projects home sales will improve in the second half of 2026 as pent-up demand meets more realistic seller pricing. The spring market has shown resilience despite rising rates, and inventory absorption has stabilized. Yun expects falling oil prices (driven by the Iran ceasefire) to help lower mortgage rates modestly, improving affordability conditions by Q4. NAR via Google News
This aligns with local Columbia market conditions. If you're advising sellers who are on the fence about listing, Q3-Q4 may offer better buyer traffic and less rate volatility than the spring. Buyers waiting for rate drops should be coached that modest improvement is more likely than a return to sub-5% rates.