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Today: National housing starts crashed 15.4% to a six-year low in May, single-family permits held flat but multifamily construction collapsed 41.6%, and NAHB builder confidence hit 35 as affordability concerns freeze buyer activity.
Housing starts plunged to 1.177 million units in May, down 15.4% month-over-month and 8.7% year-over-year to the lowest level since 2020. Single-family starts fell 1.9% to 882,000 units while multifamily starts collapsed 41.6% to 284,000 units. The South, which includes South Carolina, dropped 17% month-over-month and 15.4% year-over-year to 594,000 units. Source | Source
What this means for Columbia: New inventory will stay tight through fall. If you have buyers waiting for more options, set expectations now. Sellers with quality listings have leverage through Q3. The multifamily collapse signals investor caution, watch for cap rate adjustments on apartment deals.
Building permits fell just 0.7% to 1.413 million units, missing the 1.427 million forecast. Single-family permits actually increased 0.6% to 886,000 units, down 1.8% year-over-year. Multifamily permits dropped 3.5% month-over-month but are up 3% year-over-year. The South saw permits up both month-over-month and year-over-year, suggesting builders are cautiously planning future activity. Source
Richland County takeaway: Permit activity staying positive in the South means builders haven't given up, but they are waiting for rate relief before breaking ground. If you represent investors or custom-build clients, this is the window to lock in contractor pricing before permits turn into actual starts and labor gets tight again.
NAHB builder confidence fell two points to 35 in June, staying deep in negative territory. Bill Owens, NAHB chairman, cited elevated mortgage rates, affordability challenges and cautious buyers as continuing headwinds. Builders are offering incentives and cutting prices, but demand remains weak. Source
For agents: Builder incentives (rate buydowns, closing cost credits, upgrades) are getting aggressive. If you have first-time buyers priced out of resale, new construction with incentives may pencil. Run the numbers, builders need to move inventory.
Housing completions fell 8.1% month-over-month and 14.2% year-over-year to 1.313 million units nationally. Single-family completions dropped 1.6% month-over-month and 16.8% year-over-year to 872,000 units. Multifamily completions fell 19.3% month-over-month and 8.4% year-over-year to 426,000 units. The Midwest was the outlier, with completions up 29.7% month-over-month and 13.9% year-over-year. Source
Columbia opportunity: Completion slowdowns mean spec inventory is drying up. Investors looking for turnkey rentals should shift focus to existing resale or foreclosures. Builders sitting on nearly-complete homes may negotiate harder in Q3 to avoid carrying costs into winter.
Affordable housing pipeline is decelerating after years of record deliveries. Yardi Matrix projects affordable apartment deliveries will drop from 94,873 in 2023 to 70,977 in 2027. Higher construction costs, elevated interest rates and declining tax credit pricing have altered the economics. Many projects that were viable two years ago now require additional subsidies or are being delayed, resized or abandoned. Source
Columbia context: Section 8 and LIHTC (Low-Income Housing Tax Credit) deals are getting harder to pencil. If you work with affordable housing developers or represent properties that could qualify for subsidy programs, expect longer timelines and more complex capital stacks. Demand for affordable rentals in Columbia remains strong, but supply growth is stalling.
Oregon passed four new landlord laws effective June 2026. House Bill 4123 prevents landlords from disclosing tenants' immigration status or personal information (Social Security numbers, medical records). Violations carry penalties equal to twice monthly rent. Senate Bill 1523 bans mandatory digital rent payments, requiring landlords to accept checks or other commercially reasonable methods. Source
South Carolina note: These are Oregon laws, not South Carolina laws, but they signal a national trend toward stricter tenant privacy and payment protections. Review your lease templates and property management software now. If you require online-only payments or collect data beyond what is required for screening, consult legal counsel. SCREC has been watching similar proposals.
Affordable multifamily projects face extended permitting, funding application and compliance processes that can delay delivery. Government programs are slow to translate into actual construction. Speeding the entitlement process is critical to building more housing. Source
For Columbia landlords: If you own older rental stock near USC or Fort Jackson, this is your market. New affordable supply is not coming fast enough to meet demand. Rents should hold or climb modestly, but watch for regulatory risk. Richland County has floated rent control discussions in the past, affordability pressure could bring them back.
Existing home sales stayed flat at roughly 4 million units annually for over three years, down 35% from the July 2021 peak of 6.2 million. Mortgage rate lock-in effect is preventing 870,000 home sales nationally in 2026, according to Compass economist Jonah Coste. That figure decays at 5.8% per year as locked-in homeowners slowly move due to life events. Even if rates stay at 6.5%, sales will gradually improve. If rates fall to the 5% range, sales will accelerate significantly. Source
Columbia takeaway: The lock-in effect is real and measurable. Homeowners with 3-4% mortgages are not moving unless they have to (job transfer, divorce, death). Target your marketing to life-event triggers, not rate watchers. The buyers who are active now are the ones who cannot wait. Prioritize them, they close.
NAR seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of sales has averaged around 5 million for the last 15 years. May 2026 existing home sales came in at 4.2 million, up slightly from April and roughly 3% faster than year ago. The industry is still waiting to return to normal. Source
For agents: Normal is 5 million sales nationally, we are at 4.2 million. That is 16% below normal. Columbia market share should track similarly. If you closed 50 deals in a normal year, expect 42 this year unless you take market share from competitors. Adjust your pipeline expectations and marketing spend accordingly.