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2026-06-14
Today: National pending sales jumped 5.3% year-over-year as rates held under 6.64%, but inventory turned negative in June for the first time this cycle. Richland County agents should expect tighter competition for listings and faster absorption if mortgage rates stay below 7%.
National pending sales rose to 75,856 last week versus 72,039 in 2025, a 5.3% increase despite mortgage rates near 6.58%. The key threshold is 6.64%. Demand improves when rates break under that level and head toward 6%. HousingWire reports that 2026 has seen 20 weeks of positive year-over-year demand growth and 10 weeks of double-digit purchase application growth. For Columbia agents, this means buyer activity is real, not rate-driven speculation. If your listings are sitting past 30 DOM (Days on Market), the issue is pricing or presentation, not market conditions.
Inventory turned negative year-over-year in June 2026, a shock to most analysts. Last year's 33% inventory growth couldn't sustain once rates fell and demand picked up. The supply-and-demand equilibrium shifted when rates stayed under 7% all year. Even Florida, which saw massive inventory builds in 2025, is now negative year-over-year. For Richland County, this means sellers who listed in March and April expecting a buyer's market are now in a seller's market. Adjust pricing strategies accordingly. If you have off-market inventory, now is the time to approach those conversations.
Affordability improved slightly as wages grew faster than home prices over the past two years. The national median hit $420K, but Columbia's lower price point and steady job growth from USC, Fort Jackson, and manufacturing expansions give the Midlands a footing most metros lack. If rates had stayed under 6.25%, the analyst expected 237,000 more existing home sales nationally. That opportunity evaporated with the Iran conflict and rate volatility, but the Midlands is less exposed to geopolitical sentiment than coastal markets.
Building permit data from Tulsa, Estevan, and Clinton offer no actionable insight for the Columbia market. Meridian Tower renovations in Tulsa, $2.2M in permits in Estevan, and Clinton permit summaries are geographic mismatches. For local permit tracking, monitor Richland County's online portal for new residential and commercial filings. Watch for Lexington County multifamily permits near Lake Murray, Chapin, and Irmo. Those submarkets are absorbing overflow from downtown Columbia and USC student housing.
NAR hosted a gathering in DC to address housing challenges, but the press release offers no specifics on commission rule changes, fair housing updates, or MLS policy shifts. Until NAR publishes actionable guidance, South Carolina agents should continue to monitor SCREC (South Carolina Real Estate Commission) for state-level rule changes. The "7 Reasons to Work With a REALTOR®" piece is consumer-facing marketing, not industry policy.
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