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Today: National foreclosures jumped 18% and geopolitical tensions could push mortgage rates above 7%, first-time buyers hit a record-low 21% market share choking transaction volume across all price ranges, and multifamily construction starts collapsed 73% since 2022 while data center construction surges to fill the gap.
Mortgage rates face upward pressure into November if the Iran conflict persists past midterms. The 10-year yield could breach the upper forecast range of 4.60%, pushing mortgage rates above the 6.75% ceiling originally projected for 2026. HousingWire reports the Fed is now pricing in multiple rate hikes instead of cuts, with energy costs and inflation forcing a hawkish pivot. For active Richland County listings, this means buyers who were waiting for rate relief will keep waiting. Adjust pricing strategy now or expect DOM (Days on Market) to stretch.
First-time buyers dropped to 21% of transactions nationally, half the historical 40% norm. HousingWire notes qualifying income for a median-priced home has doubled since 2020 while wages have not kept pace. This is not a rate cycle problem that self-corrects. When the entry-level buyer disappears, the entire chain breaks. The family in the $450K starter home cannot move up to the $700K property, and that seller cannot free up inventory above them. Columbia agents waiting for 2021 conditions will be waiting for years. Work with first-time buyers now requires down payment assistance programs and lender relationship depth, not just MLS searches.
National foreclosure filings climbed 18%, with San Antonio seeing a 27% surge. The Business Journals reports the increase as rates and payment stress compound. Watch for Richland County foreclosure auction inventory to tick up in Q3. Investor clients with cash positions should track courthouse steps and trustee sale listings now.
National foreclosures up 18% signal opportunity for cash buyers and investor clients with financing lined up. Contact clients who walked from deals in 2024-2025 due to rate shock. Many of those sellers are now facing payment stress and foreclosure timelines. REO (Real Estate Owned) and pre-foreclosure outreach should be part of the weekly prospecting routine. Probate and estate sale inventory also benefits from this environment as heirs liquidate inherited properties rather than carry mortgage payments at current rates.
Data center construction is plugging the hole left by collapsing multifamily starts. Commercial Observer reports Turner Construction expects data center work to exceed $20 billion by 2030, with individual projects reaching $10 billion. Meanwhile, multifamily starts fell to 55,000 units in Q1 2026, down 73% from the 2022 peak. For Columbia investors, this means industrial outdoor storage (IOS) and logistics real estate is where the construction lending and cap rate compression will concentrate. Multifamily deals are facing higher rates, inflated material costs, and population growth too weak to justify new starts in most markets.
Industrial outdoor storage (IOS) continues to attract institutional capital. Commercial Observer notes Realterm controls a $7.5 billion IOS portfolio and Blackstone just financed $244 million for 37 IOS properties across 27 markets. IOS assets support truck terminals, warehouses, and logistics flow-through rather than static storage. Columbia's proximity to I-77, I-20, and I-26 makes Richland County viable for IOS conversion plays. Look for underutilized industrial parcels near highway interchanges and contact owners with 1031 exchange or sale-leaseback options.
The "poor man's 1031 exchange" strategy uses cost segregation studies and accelerated depreciation to offset capital gains from property sales without formal 1031 timelines. HousingWire explains an investor selling a property with a $500K taxable gain can purchase another property in the same calendar year, conduct a cost segregation study to reclassify building components into shorter depreciation schedules, and claim hundreds of thousands in first-year deductions. This is not tax-free forever, depreciation recapture occurs on the replacement property sale, but it defers the tax hit and preserves liquidity. Pitch this to investor clients who missed 1031 deadlines or want access to sale proceeds without triggering immediate tax liability.
Manhattan office leasing jumped 17.3% month-over-month and is 50% above the 10-year monthly average, with projections for 47 million square feet annually if the pace holds. Commercial Observer reports this would be the strongest leasing year since 2000. National CRE lending continues with an $870 million construction loan for a Four Seasons residential project in Austin, one of the largest residential construction loans in Texas history. Columbia is not Manhattan, but the signal matters. High-quality office and mixed-use assets with strong tenant credit are still transacting. The distress is concentrated in Class B/C office with weak occupancy and refinancing gaps.
Reverse mortgage originators are pivoting from last-resort financing to wealth management tools for affluent retirees. HousingWire interviews Gabe Bodner at OneTrust Home Loans, who originated $40 million last year by targeting asset-rich borrowers who do not need reverse mortgages but can use them for tax mitigation and cash flow optimization. Proprietary reverse products now make up 35% of OneTrust's pipeline, allowing access to higher equity amounts on expensive homes without FHA's steep upfront mortgage insurance premiums. For Columbia agents working with retirees sitting on paid-off homes in Forest Acres, Shandon, or Lake Murray waterfront properties, reverse mortgages are not distress products anymore. They are retirement income and estate planning tools. Establish referral relationships with reverse mortgage specialists now.