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May 30, 2026
Today: National new home sales plummeted 6.2% in April to a four-year low as 7% mortgages continue choking demand, while U.S. home prices barely held positive at 0.7% year-over-year in March. Refinance applications dropped 18% last week as rates climbed to 6.65%, and Florida's property tax elimination proposal could reshape affordability competition across southeastern markets.
National new home sales dropped 6.2% month-over-month in April and 11.3% year-over-year, hitting the lowest level in four years as elevated mortgage rates and affordability concerns continue pressuring buyer demand. US New Home Sales Drop 6.2% In April, New home sales slump in April, Inventory Builds as New Home Sales Cool Months of new home supply jumped to 9.4 months, well into buyer's market territory. For Columbia's Richland County market, this national demand weakness means continued negotiating power for buyers and pressure on sellers to price competitively. Watch builder incentives, including rate buydowns and closing cost credits, as national inventory accumulates.
Mortgage rates continued ticking up this week, with the 30-year fixed rising 2 basis points to 6.53% according to Freddie Mac's latest survey. Rates have climbed 55 basis points from multi-year lows of 5.98% three months ago as the Iran conflict drives inflation expectations and bond market uncertainty. Despite the increase, rates remain 36 basis points below last year's levels, which is why this spring is shaping up as the most active in four years. For Columbia buyers, every eighth of a point matters. A buyer qualifying at $300K with 6.5% rates loses roughly $15K in purchasing power at 6.65%. Price listings accordingly and advise buyers to lock when rates dip, not when they spike.
Home price appreciation is barely staying positive. The S&P Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index rose just 0.7% year-over-year in March, down from 0.8% in February. More than half of the 20 tracked metros posted annual declines, with Seattle down 2.5%, Denver down 2.0%, and Tampa down 1.9%. National home prices have risen just 0.3% over the past six months, effectively flat. Meanwhile, inflation has outpaced price appreciation for ten consecutive months, meaning real home values are declining. Midwest and Northeast markets continue outperforming, with Chicago up 6.1% annually. Columbia's market sits between these extremes. Sellers expecting 2021-2023 appreciation need to reset. Buyers should look for realistic pricing, not panic buys.
Mortgage applications fell 8.5% last week as the average 30-year fixed rate climbed to 6.65% from 6.56%, the highest level since August 2025. Refinance applications plummeted 18% week-over-week, hitting the lowest share of total mortgage activity (37.5%) since June 2025. Purchase applications held steadier, slipping just 0.4% week-over-week and remaining 5% above year-ago levels. The average purchase loan size hit a survey high of $473,600, as borrowers with smaller loan amounts were priced out by higher rates. For Columbia's median-priced market, this data confirms what's happening locally: buyers are still active, but rate-sensitive, and smaller transactions are getting squeezed out. Focus listings on move-up buyers and cash buyers with flexibility.
NAR's May 2026 Housing Mismatch Report reveals why rising inventory hasn't translated into stronger sales. As of March 2026, just 74.9% of U.S. listings matched the income distribution of typical households, up from 66.7% a year ago but far below the pre-pandemic level of 84.4%. Lower- and middle-income households earning $75,000 can access only 23% of listings nationally (compared to 44% in a balanced market), creating a shortage of about 311,000 affordable listings. Midwest and Southern markets like Columbia fare better than coastal markets. Toledo, Ohio leads at 107.4% alignment, while Los Angeles scores just 39.4%. Columbia's affordability relative to coastal markets is a competitive advantage. Emphasize this in buyer consultations and investor pitches, especially for clients relocating from higher-cost metros.
Foreclosure filings rose 26% year-over-year in Q1 2026 to roughly 119,000, the highest level in six years. The increase is driven by soaring home insurance bills, property taxes, and HOA fees rather than mortgage defaults alone. For Columbia investors and agents working with distressed properties, this signals opportunity. Monitor foreclosure auction calendars, tax sale notices, and pre-foreclosure listings. Buyers looking for below-market deals should act now while inventory builds and sellers face mounting carrying costs.
Mortgage rates are set to end the week much lower compared to last Friday, marking the 8th straight business day where rates either held steady or moved lower. The bigger-picture issue remains the state of the Iran war. If it officially ends, rates likely have more room to improve. If hostilities re-escalate, rates could move back up into the recently higher range. For Columbia buyers on the fence, this is the window. Lock rates when you see improvement, not when you hope for better.
Building permits data for Richland and Lexington Counties is not available in today's feed, but national trends show permit activity slowing as builders pull back amid elevated rates and inventory buildup. Contact Richland County and Lexington County permit offices directly for local data. New construction slowdowns create opportunity for resale inventory, especially in USC student housing corridors and Fort Jackson military housing submarkets where supply remains tight.
A prominent retail landlord sees lasting premium in neighborhood retail, with NewMark Merrill Companies' portfolio spanning 110 shopping centers valued at over $3 billion. Traffic at their centers is running 20% above pre-COVID levels, rents are rising, and construction remains limited. The cautionary note: pricing is getting aggressive, and a fragile consumer could put pressure on tenant margins if construction picks up. For Columbia investors eyeing retail strip centers or neighborhood shopping centers near USC or Fort Jackson, this validates the thesis. Traffic is strong, supply is constrained, but overpaying in a hot cap rate environment will hurt if tenant lease-up stalls. Underwrite conservatively and focus on necessity retail, not discretionary.
Benefit Street Partners provided $82 million to refinance Render Legacy Trail, a 450-unit multifamily community in Florida's Sarasota County. The loan is structured as a three-year loan with two one-year extension options. Sarasota's Gulf Coast continues seeing strong population growth and renter demand, particularly for well-located, amenitized communities. For Columbia investors, this is a comp to watch. Multifamily financing is still available for quality assets with strong sponsorship, even in a higher-rate environment. Focus on Class A amenities, proximity to employment centers (USC, Fort Jackson, downtown Columbia), and submarkets with constrained supply.
Florida's housing market is settling into measured stability, with pending sales rising year-over-year for eight consecutive months and inventory flattening. Median list price sits at $495,000, with 44% of listings seeing price cuts. Single-family homes are closing in 44 days on market, while condos and townhouses are taking around 60 days. Florida's condo market sits at roughly nine months of supply due to new regulations following the 2021 Surfside collapse. For Columbia rental investors and property managers, Florida's trends offer a preview. Markets with overbuilt condo supply or regulatory pressure will see longer absorption times and price weakness. Columbia's single-family rental market remains healthier, but watch for oversupply signals in off-campus USC housing and downtown condo conversions.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis' proposal to phase out property taxes for most primary homeowners could eliminate property taxes for 60% of homeowners initially, and potentially 92% eventually by raising the homestead exemption to $500,000. The proposal requires 60% approval from lawmakers and 60% of voters in a statewide referendum. Housing leaders told HousingWire the proposal could dramatically alter monthly ownership costs and reignite demand, but critics warn it may fuel higher home prices and shift tax burdens onto commercial property, rental homes, and secondary residences. For Columbia's market, this is a competitive threat. If Florida eliminates property taxes for primary residences, South Carolina's tax environment becomes less attractive for relocating buyers. Monitor this closely and emphasize South Carolina's income tax structure, lower insurance costs, and cost of living advantages if Florida's tax proposal gains traction.
Zillow's listing feed dispute is spreading. Tennessee-based MLS Realtracs is preparing to suspend its listing feed to Zillow on June 1 if Zillow does not comply with updated IDX display rules by a May 31 deadline. This follows a similar suspension by Midwest Real Estate Data (MRED) in the Chicagoland area. Realtracs requires vendors and portals to display all listings matching a consumer's search criteria unless the seller specifically opts out. Zillow's listing access standards conflict with this rule, resulting in dozens of banned Realtracs listings. For Columbia brokers and agents, this is a reminder to maintain direct listing feeds to all major portals (Zillow, Realtor.com, Homes.com) to ensure maximum seller exposure regardless of MLS feed disputes. If you rely solely on MLS syndication, you risk losing Zillow exposure if this dispute reaches South Carolina's MLS.
NAHB scored a major advocacy victory as the House passed an amendment to the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act that removes a build-to-rent (BTR) sales provision that would have hurt affordability and reduced housing supply. The housing package also raises and indexes multifamily loan limits to spur apartment development and provides relief to community banks. For Columbia's development and construction community, this is good news. BTR inventory has been a growing segment near USC and in suburban Lexington County. Removing sales restrictions keeps that supply flowing and preserves affordability for renters who can't yet buy.
Rocket Mortgage expanded its rollout of VantageScore 4.0 for Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and VA loan products, following FHFA's April announcement launching a pilot program for VantageScore 4.0 alongside FICO 10T. Rocket is pulling both FICO and VantageScore credit scores for each application during the pilot phase, giving borrowers "the most opportunity to show they qualify for a loan." For Columbia loan officers and buyers, this is a potential qualification expander. Buyers who don't qualify under Classic FICO may qualify under VantageScore 4.0. Ask lenders if they're pulling both scores and using the higher of the two for eligibility and pricing.
Washington state signed scissor stair building code reform into law, making it the first state in the nation to allow scissor stairs (two interlocking stairways within a single fire-rated enclosure) in multifamily construction. The reform can cut total construction costs by 6% to 13% per building by restoring design flexibility on tight urban infill lots and freeing up leasable square footage previously consumed by dual-stairwell requirements. The law takes effect June 11, with final code amendments expected in 2027. For Columbia developers and urban infill investors, this is a model to watch. South Carolina's building codes remain more restrictive. If scissor stair reform spreads, it could unlock downtown Columbia and USC-adjacent infill sites that are currently uneconomical under dual-stairwell requirements. Push for similar reform at the state level through SCREC and local builder associations.
End of Brief