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Today: National housing inventory is about to go negative year over year despite mortgage rates climbing to 6.8%, new listings hit 85,000 weekly, and pending sales are up 9.7% from last year. This means Richland County's 2-3 month inventory advantage is shrinking faster than anticipated.
National housing inventory grew just 0.89% year over year last week (794,286 active listings vs. 787,287 in May 2025) and is on track to go negative within weeks. This matters for Columbia because we are seeing the same pattern locally. When the national market had 4-5 months of inventory in 2023, Richland County was at 6-7 months. Now that the national market is approaching 3 months, Columbia's inventory is compressing toward 2-2.5 months. HousingWire analysis
Pending sales nationally hit 79,370 last week, up 9.7% from 72,312 in May 2025, despite mortgage rates holding above 6.64%. DOM (Days on Market) is falling in Richland County as a result. If you have listings sitting past 45 days, reprice now before the summer inventory crunch hits. The window to capture Memorial Day weekend shoppers closes this week.
Price-cut percentage stayed flat at 36.77% nationally (vs. 37% last year), meaning sellers are not panicking despite higher rates. In Columbia, this translates to fewer motivated sellers and tighter negotiating leverage for buyers. If you are working with buyers expecting 2023-style concessions, reset expectations. Appraisal gaps and inspection-only contingencies are back in play for desirable neighborhoods like Forest Acres, Shandon, and Lake Carolina.
New listings data hit 85,159 last week, up from 83,143 in 2025. This is healthy churn, not a flood. Columbia's new listing volume typically lags the national pace by 10-15%, so expect 300-350 new Richland County listings per week through June. Tell investor clients to monitor the MLS daily. Good deals are moving in 48-72 hours, not weeks.
Housing demand is holding firm despite mortgage rates rising 0.76% from 2026 lows, which validates the tight inventory thesis. Columbia's market fundamentals (Fort Jackson PCS cycles, USC enrollment stability, and Boeing/Prisma job growth) insulate us from rate volatility better than most Sunbelt markets. Price growth is in check nationally, with wages rising faster than home prices for the second consecutive year. This supports affordability in Richland County's $200K-$300K segment, which is critical for first-time buyers and military families. Full national inventory analysis
If rates drop back toward 6% (possible if the Iran peace deal materializes), expect a demand surge that will overwhelm current inventory. Prepare seller clients with pre-listing inspections and have backup financing options ready for buyers (credit unions, portfolio lenders). The next 30-60 days will determine whether Columbia stays balanced or tips back into a seller's market.