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Today: Mortgage rates hit 6.65%, the highest of 2026, driven by ongoing Iran conflict pushing the 10-year yield to 4.596%. Purchase applications remain positive year-over-year for now, but the 6.64% threshold historically slows demand. National foreclosures jumped 42% year-over-year, signaling distress inventory may start appearing in Richland County within 60-90 days.
Mortgage rates closed at 6.65% last week, the yearly high, as the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.596%, the upper bound of 2026 forecasts. The Iran conflict continues driving yields higher, with analysts warning rates could push toward 6.75% if tensions persist through June. HousingWire
Historical data shows housing demand slows when rates break above 6.64% and contracts sharply over 7%. The sweet spot for sustained purchase activity has been sub-6.25% rates over the past several years. For Columbia agents, this means buyers who were pre-approved at 6.25% in March are now facing materially higher monthly payments. A $300K purchase at 6.25% costs $1,847/month (P&I). At 6.65%, that same loan runs $1,924/month, an extra $924 annually. Revisit pre-approvals from Q1 and prepare buyers for payment shock.
Weekly pending sales nationally grew 6.1% year-over-year (78,006 vs 73,523), and purchase applications increased 7% year-over-year. This data was collected before the Friday rate spike, so next week's numbers will show whether demand holds above 6.64%. If Richland County inventory remains tight (typical late spring levels around 2.0-2.5 months), sellers still have pricing power, but buyers will need rate buydowns or seller concessions to maintain affordability. Structure offers with 2-1 buydowns or permanent buydowns funded by seller credits.
Mortgage spreads closed at 1.92%, down from 1.96% the prior week. If spreads were at 2023 levels, rates would be 7.84% today instead of 6.65%. The compression in spreads is the only reason rates aren't above 7%. This won't last if geopolitical risk escalates through summer. Oil reserve depletion by early June could push yields higher, taking mortgage rates with them. Lock rates aggressively for buyers in contract. Float at your peril.
National foreclosure filings surged 42% year-over-year, with Delaware leading distress levels. South Carolina foreclosure activity typically lags national trends by 60-90 days, meaning distressed inventory could start appearing in Richland County's MLS by late July. New York Post
Watch Richland County public notices for foreclosure auctions, lis pendens filings, and REO (Real Estate Owned) listings from major servicers. Foreclosures sell at steep discounts (typically 15-30% below market) but require cash or hard money due to condition and title issues. Investors with liquidity should monitor courthouse steps and establish relationships with foreclosure attorneys now. Retail buyers with renovation capacity can find value in REO listings once they hit MLS, but expect competition from institutional buyers and flippers.
Pre-foreclosure outreach (direct mail to lis pendens addresses) can generate short sale opportunities before properties reach auction. South Carolina allows deficiency judgments, so homeowners underwater have strong incentive to negotiate short sales rather than let properties go to foreclosure. Position yourself as the agent who can navigate loss mitigation with servicers.
Analysis Note: Today's collection included 4 articles, but only 1 contained substantive content. The Albuquerque cottage project and Canada housing starts are not relevant to the Columbia market. The foreclosure data is national but signals a trend worth monitoring locally. Thin collection days like this happen when RSS feeds publish minimal content. Next briefing will likely have stronger local data.