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Today: 30-year fixed rates hit a one-month low at 6.42%, the MBA sees no Fed cuts in 2026 with inflation tracking to 4%, and inventory growth is slowing across the national market as we work from harder year-over-year comps.
Mortgage rates dropped to the lowest level in a month, with the 30-year fixed falling to 6.42% from 6.51% last week. The decline is tied to oil price movements and war-related optimism in the Middle East, per the MBA. Total mortgage applications rose 1.8% weekly, driven by a 5% jump in refinance activity. Purchase applications fell 1% for the week and were 3% below last year, marking the second consecutive week below 2025 levels. Homebuyers remain hesitant due to economic uncertainty. Source
The MBA's chief economist Mike Fratantoni now sees mortgage rates and inflation staying elevated through 2026, with no Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year. The federal funds rate will likely hold in the 3.5% to 3.75% range into 2027. Inflation is now tracking closer to 4% by year end instead of the original 3.2% forecast, driven by oil prices tied to the Iran conflict. Job growth averaged 70,000 so far in 2026, up from 15,000 in 2025, with unemployment at 4.3% as of March. For Richland County agents, this means the 6%-7% rate environment is the new normal for the foreseeable future. Adjust buyer expectations now rather than waiting for cuts that are not coming. Source
National housing inventory growth is slowing in 2026 after a strong 2025. Inventory is normalizing after years of record-low levels, currently sitting at 1.36 million total active listings with a seasonal peak expected above 1.52 million later this year. Year-over-year inventory growth has decelerated because we are working from a higher baseline and facing harder comps from mid-2025. States like Florida and Dallas-Fort Worth are already showing negative year-over-year inventory. New listings data is not taking off, running below the 80,000-100,000 weekly range that would signal a normal market. For Columbia agents, this means the inventory squeeze continues even as national data normalizes. Price pressure remains, especially in affordable segments. Source
Outstanding mortgage data from Realtor.com shows the typical mortgage holder's monthly payment topped $2,000 for the first time in Q4 2025. The share of homeowners with rates below 3% dropped to 19.7%, down from a peak of 24.6% in early 2022. Just over half of outstanding mortgages (50.6%) carry rates of 4% or lower, and 78% have rates below 6%. The 6%-or-higher share now stands at 21.9%, up 3.9 percentage points from Q4 2024's 18.0%. The lock-in effect is slowly eroding as borrowers trade low rates for higher ones, but the pace is glacial. For Columbia agents working with move-up buyers, this data confirms what you are seeing in the field. The equity position is strong enough to overcome rate resistance for motivated buyers, but discretionary moves remain frozen. Source
The White House estimates a 10 million single-family housing shortage, attributing it to overregulation and reduced construction rates since 2008. Housing starts averaged 6,000 per 1 million people between 1983 and 2007 but have run at about 3,000 per 1 million since 2008. Other estimates are more modest: Freddie Mac pegs the shortage at 3.7 million units, Realtor.com at 4 million, and NAHB at 1.2 million. The White House is pushing deregulation to spur construction, targeting local zoning restrictions and federal climate rules. For Columbia agents, this is a long-term supply signal. The construction deficit is real, regardless of the exact number, and it supports pricing power in existing inventory. Source
HELOC demand is surging as homeowners tap record equity without giving up low first mortgage rates. Homeowners today hold nearly $35 trillion in total home equity and roughly $11 trillion in tappable equity. Borrowers are using HELOCs to consolidate high-interest debt, fund renovations, buy additional property, and cover major expenses. Second liens have become a daily transaction for many originators, and the trend is steady through 2026 despite rate uncertainty. For Columbia agents, this is a lead generation opportunity. Clients sitting on equity but locked into low rates are prime HELOC candidates. Partner with lenders offering competitive HELOC products and position this as a way to access cash without refinancing. Source
Mesa West Capital provided $47 million in short-term refinancing for Bishop Momo, a 274-unit multifamily community in Austin, Texas. The asset opened in 2024 in the St. Elmo district of South Austin, a 275-acre mixed-use redevelopment near Austin-Bergstrom International Airport. Mesa West noted the property benefits from an existing supply and demand imbalance in Austin, particularly a lack of new construction starts. Austin's population grew 3.3% from April 2020 to July 2024. The ground floor features 5,835 square feet of retail space that is 100% occupied. For Columbia multifamily investors, this is a comp signal. Short-term bridge debt is available for well-located assets in markets with supply constraints and population growth. Columbia's Fort Jackson PCS cycles and USC enrollment create similar demand drivers. Source
California lawmakers are weighing AB 2074, the Downtown Revitalization Act, which would ease approvals and offer state-backed, low-interest financing for high-rise construction near major transit hubs in the state's seven largest cities. The bill calls for seeding a loan fund with $500 million. It sets a baseline building height of 150 feet in regional transit districts, with at least one-quarter of land allowing towers of 450 feet or more. Projects meeting labor and affordability standards would qualify for streamlined approvals. Proponents say the fund is designed to close capital stack gaps that make tall buildings financially unfeasible compared to mid-rise construction. For Columbia commercial investors, this is a policy trend to watch. If California's approach gains traction, similar state-backed financing programs could emerge in other states looking to revive downtowns and increase density. Source
The UPREIT structure (umbrella partnership real estate investment trust) remains a key liquidity option for property owners seeking to transition into REITs without triggering immediate capital gains taxes. First used by Taubman Centers in 1992, the UPREIT has been used in the vast majority of new REITs since then. The structure allows property owners to contribute appreciated real estate to an operating partnership in exchange for ownership units, deferring capital gains taxes. For Columbia commercial property owners sitting on appreciated assets, the UPREIT remains a viable exit strategy. If you are advising clients on portfolio recapitalization or liquidity, bring in REIT-focused tax counsel to evaluate whether a 721 exchange makes sense. Source
Redfin's guide on converting a primary residence into a rental emphasizes cash flow as the first test. Rent must exceed expenses (or come close) for the conversion to make financial sense. Key factors include mortgage terms (some lenders require you to live in the home for a certain period before renting), equity position (investment property loans typically require over 20% equity), and local rental demand. Property management typically costs 8-12% of monthly rent. For Columbia landlords, this is a checklist to share with clients considering the conversion. USC off-campus housing and Fort Jackson military housing submarkets have strong rental demand, but margins depend on existing mortgage terms and equity position. Source
The rate lock-in effect continues to constrain overall transaction volume, but move-up buyers remain resilient. Data from Realtor.com's 2025 Sellers Survey found that 34% of homeowners planning to sell in the next 12 months cited needing more space, up from 23.4% in 2024. Move-up buyers have been able to convert equity gains into higher-priced homes, effectively buying down the impact of higher rates. However, mobility is down and the traditional housing ladder is partially frozen. Moves have shifted from discretionary to necessity-driven. For Columbia agents, this confirms what you are seeing in the field. The move-up segment is the most active buyer cohort, driven by life events (growing families, aging parents, remote work needs) rather than financial opportunism. Focus your marketing on life-stage transitions, not rate optimization. Source
Almost 17% of 2024 vintage FHA loans and more than 25% of VA loans are now underwater, per the MBA's chief economist. This compares to very strong equity positions for borrowers who bought in earlier years. FHA delinquencies have climbed to about 11.5%, driven by changes to loss mitigation and genuine credit deterioration, while conventional loan delinquencies are at historic lows. For Columbia agents working with first-time buyers and veterans, this is a risk management signal. Recent FHA and VA buyers are more vulnerable than the broader market. If you are advising sellers on offer evaluation, be aware that FHA and VA buyers from 2024 may face tighter underwriting or higher default risk if market conditions deteriorate. Source
Canadian lumber duties are expected to drop from the current combined rate of 35.16% to 24.83% this summer following the U.S. Department of Commerce's annual review. Antidumping duties will fall to 10.66% from 20.56%, and countervailing duties will drop to 14.17% from 14.63%. The final results are expected in 120 days. NAHB continues to call on the Trump administration to suspend tariffs on Canadian lumber imports altogether and negotiate a new softwood lumber agreement. For Columbia agents working with builders or renovation clients, this is a cost relief signal. Lumber prices should ease modestly later this year, improving margins for new construction and large-scale rehab projects. Source
Buying a house after bankruptcy is possible, with waiting periods depending on the type of bankruptcy and loan program. Chapter 7 bankruptcy stays on your credit report for up to 10 years, while Chapter 13 remains for up to 7 years. FHA, VA, and USDA loans offer more flexible requirements, with some borrowers eligible in as little as two years after discharge. Lenders focus on how you manage finances after the bankruptcy, including credit score, income stability, and debt levels. For Columbia agents working with credit-challenged buyers, this is a timeline guide. Refer clients to mortgage professionals who specialize in post-bankruptcy lending, and set realistic expectations on waiting periods and down payment requirements. Source
Buying a house before divorce is final is legally possible in most states, but the property may be treated as marital property depending on state law. In community property states (including South Carolina's neighbor Texas), assets acquired during the marriage are jointly owned regardless of whose name is on the title. In equitable distribution states (including South Carolina), assets are divided fairly based on factors like income, contributions, and needs. Buyers going through divorce should consult their attorney before purchasing and address the purchase in their divorce agreement to clarify mortgage responsibility and asset division. For Columbia agents, this is a compliance reminder. If a buyer discloses an ongoing divorce, refer them to legal counsel before proceeding. Do not assume sole ownership based on contract signatures. Source