Get tomorrow's brief in your inbox
April 1, 2026
Today: 30-year fixed rates climbed to 6.57% before dropping back below 6.50%, refinance applications fell 17% in one week, and national home price growth slowed to 0.9% year-over-year as the spring selling season navigates elevated mortgage rates and geopolitical uncertainty.
Mortgage rates hit a turbulent week. The 30-year fixed climbed to 6.57%, the highest level since last August and up half a percentage point from just one month ago, according to MBA data. That spike crushed refinance applications, down 17% week-over-week and down more than 40% compared to last month. Purchase applications held steadier, dropping only 3%, with FHA and VA loans outperforming conventional products. For Columbia agents, this means affordability just took a hit right as spring listings arrive. Buyers who were pre-qualified at 6% rates need updated numbers, and sellers pricing to February comps are about to face payment-shocked prospects.
Rates dropped back below 6.50% by March 31 as Iran war de-escalation headlines moved markets. The best two-day improvement since the war began is encouraging, but rates remain elevated compared to the sub-6% levels seen in early March. For Richland County, this volatility creates tactical opportunities. Lock rates aggressively when geopolitical news turns favorable, and counsel clients that rate windows are narrowing fast.
National home prices continue to soften. The S&P Case-Shiller Index showed 0.9% year-over-year growth in January, down from 1.1% in December. Northeast and Midwest metros posted the strongest gains (New York +4.9%, Chicago +4.6%), while Sun Belt markets like Tampa fell 2.5%. Columbia falls somewhere in between. The Midlands did not see the extreme pandemic appreciation that Tampa or Boise experienced, so the correction here should be milder. Watch for steady but modest price growth as USC spring enrollment numbers arrive and Fort Jackson PCS cycles kick in.
Realtor.com reported that inventory has climbed year-over-year for more than two years, time on market is up in 43 of the top 50 metros, and median list prices have fallen for five straight months. Price cuts are down, suggesting sellers are pricing more realistically from the start rather than listing high and cutting later. In Columbia, this translates to a normalizing market. Aggressive overpricing will kill listings. Price to appraisal data and recent comps, not to 2023 peak values.
No Columbia-specific USC or Fort Jackson articles appeared today, but the national immigration enforcement impacts are worth noting. Immigration fell 82% year-over-year in 2025, the lowest level in 40 years, and 2026 is forecast to be even lower. For Columbia, this affects USC international enrollment and off-campus housing demand. If USC's international student pipeline contracts, Five Points and Vista landlords could see softer leasing for fall 2026. Monitor USC spring enrollment reports closely and adjust rent expectations for properties heavily reliant on international tenants.
Building permit activity dominated today's feed, but most articles covered out-of-market data (Brownsville, Tyler, New Zealand). The takeaway for Columbia investors is national permit trends. NAHB data showed single-family permits down 7.4% in 2025, with large metro core counties seeing the steepest declines (down 12.8%). Micro counties posted the only growth, up 1.6%. For Richland County, this suggests new construction is slowing in Columbia proper while outlying areas like Blythewood and Irmo may see continued builder activity. Investors looking for new construction deals should target small metro suburban areas where land costs are lower and builder incentives are aggressive.
No local foreclosure, tax sale, or REO articles appeared today. For deal flow in Columbia, focus on expired listings and price reductions. With sellers pricing more realistically upfront (per Realtor.com data), the opportunity is in contacting agents with listings that have been on the market 60+ days and proposing creative financing or subject-to strategies.
Two New York commercial leases made news. Mercy Center leased 6,252 SF in the Bronx at mid-$40s per square foot for a 15-year term, and AI firm Agentio signed a 20,000 SF office lease at $105 per square foot. While these are New York deals, the takeaway for Columbia landlords is lease duration and tenant mix. Nonprofits and tech firms are both signing long-term leases in markets with strong demographics. For Vista office space or mixed-use projects near USC, target nonprofits expanding community services and small tech firms looking for affordable alternatives to Charlotte or Atlanta.
BGO acquired Bell Partners in a $350 million deal, bringing 70,000 multifamily units under management. The deal signals continued institutional appetite for professionally managed multifamily portfolios. Columbia investors with stabilized rental portfolios (4+ units, professional management, strong occupancy) should position properties for potential bulk sales to institutional buyers. Clean financials, third-party property management, and competitive cap rates are table stakes.
National rental trends point to a "forever renter" era, though the article content was paywalled. The headline alone signals what Columbia landlords already know: homeownership affordability is pushing renters to stay longer. For Richland County, this means tenant retention is critical. Offer lease renewal incentives (one month free rent on a 24-month renewal, minor upgrades) rather than chasing vacancy and turnover costs. Stable tenants at slightly below-market rents beat 60-day vacancies at peak rents.
NAHB is forming a working group on building codes for missing middle housing (duplexes, triplexes, townhomes, small multifamily). The initiative aims to consolidate code requirements and create pathways for higher-density housing that fits into existing single-family neighborhoods. For Columbia developers and investors, this is a long-term zoning opportunity. If ICC adopts streamlined codes for missing middle housing, projects like duplex conversions in Rosewood or small multifamily infill near USC become more viable. Track NAHB's progress and engage with Richland County planning on missing middle zoning updates.
Keller Williams named Jason Abrams chief industry and strategy officer, doubling down on agent education and business model training. For Columbia agents, the message is clear: brokerages are betting on differentiated training as a retention tool in a slower transaction market. Agents without a codified business plan, database strategy, and lead generation system will struggle. Invest in training now or risk falling behind as the market normalizes.
ERA Real Estate closed 24 M&A deals worth $1.5 billion in sales volume across 2024-2025, using franchise affiliation as a platform for rapid consolidation. For Columbia brokerage owners, this is a signal that independent brokerages are targets for acquisition or affiliation. If you are running a sub-50 agent brokerage with flat or declining agent count, the next 18 months will determine whether you grow, exit, or fade. Evaluate franchise affiliation, merge with a larger local competitor, or invest aggressively in agent recruitment.