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March 27, 2026
Today: 30-year fixed jumped to 6.38%, Iran conflict pushing rates to 7-month highs, and NAI Columbia closed two Chapin outparcels as Richland County waits for spring demand to stabilize.
The 30-year fixed mortgage rate jumped 16 basis points to 6.38% this week, marking the largest one-week increase since April 2025 and the highest level in 7-8 months. Freddie Mac data shows rates climbing on fears of wartime inflation as the Iran conflict drives crude oil toward $100 a barrel, pushing the 10-year Treasury yield to its highest levels since last fall. Some lenders are now reporting rates closer to 6.62%, with the psychological sub-6% environment from February replaced by high volatility. The Fed is holding rates steady for "some time" according to Governor Michael Barr, who wants to see inflation (currently 2.8% PCE, 3.1% core) retreat sustainably before cutting the policy rate. For Columbia listings, the rate move kills refinance demand and puts buyers in wait-and-see mode. Adjust pricing expectations now or prepare for extended days on market.
Purchase application data took its first hit last week, declining 5% week-over-week with year-over-year growth slowing from 12% to 5%. Housing demand was running smoothly through February before the war escalated in mid-March. HousingWire analysis notes the spring homebuying season had the best backdrop in years (softer labor market, better spreads, rate cuts in the system) until the Iran conflict changed the trajectory. If the conflict persists and oil prices stabilize, rates could settle back toward 6%. For now, buyers facing soft employment figures and affordability concerns are hesitant to commit. Focus on move-up buyers who locked in 3% rates and need space, or Fort Jackson PCS families on military orders with less rate sensitivity.
Inventory conditions remain favorable compared to a year ago despite the rate spike. Prices are down, homes for sale are up, and we are entering the best time of year to list. The barrier is not supply, it's buyer confidence and borrowing costs. Watch for distressed sellers who priced in February and are now stuck with March rate reality. Those listings will come back to market as price reductions in 30-60 days.
No direct USC enrollment or student housing data this week, but the broader rental market trends signal opportunity. A Realtor.com rental analysis finds young renters (ages 22-32, median 28, earning $65,000) are concentrating in mid-size, affordable metros like Austin, Denver, and Colorado Springs, not expensive coastal cities. The shift is driven by a massive affordability gap: 52.6% of renters can afford fair market rent in the top young-renter markets versus 32% in Miami and 33.6% in Los Angeles. These markets also offer tight labor markets (3.6% unemployment versus 4.1% national).
Columbia has the advantage: strong job growth, lower cost of living than coastal markets, and USC enrollment (35,000+) anchoring student housing demand in Five Points, the Vista, and off-campus neighborhoods near campus. The report notes that where renting is affordable, young households live independently. Where it is not, they double up (16.3% in Los Angeles versus 8.6% in affordable markets). Columbia's rental affordability supports independent living, which means demand for studios and one-bedrooms near campus remains strong even as rates climb. Fort Jackson PCS cycles add another demand layer for landlords with homes near base entrances.
Target landlords with vacant student housing units now. Lease-up season runs through May. If they are sitting empty, they need aggressive pricing or incentives (one month free, utilities included) to capture USC students finalizing fall housing. For investors, watch for student housing properties hitting the market as small landlords exit due to insurance costs or property tax increases.
NAI Columbia reported three February-March transactions in the Columbia Star. Patrick Palmer, Bobby Balboni, and Sam Edens sold two outparcels in Chapin Crossing, downtown Chapin. John Gregory sold a 3-acre tract at 1341 Pineview Drive for $200,000. On the leasing side, Jeff Hein, Will DuPree, and Hope Andrews leased 1,917 SF of office space in Landmark Business Park in Forest Acres. These are small commercial deals, but they signal continued activity in Lexington County (Chapin) and established Forest Acres submarkets.
No residential permit, foreclosure, or tax sale data this week specific to Richland or Lexington counties. National building permit headlines point to sluggish housing starts, but those reports cover markets like Ontario, Champaign County, and Lawrence. For Columbia deal sourcing, focus on expired listings from February that failed to sell before rates spiked. MLS expired reports will show which sellers need pricing reality checks or agent switches. FSBO inventory also tends to rise when sellers think they can avoid commission costs, then realize they are leaving money on the table.
Price reduction alerts are the canary in the coal mine. Watch for listings that dropped 5-10% in the past two weeks. Those sellers are motivated and may accept below-market offers if they need to close before summer.
The Chapin Crossing outparcel sales show commercial land still moving in high-growth Lexington County corridors. Chapin is benefiting from Lake Murray proximity and families priced out of closer-in Columbia neighborhoods. The Landmark Business Park lease (1,917 SF office) confirms Forest Acres remains a stable office submarket despite work-from-home trends. Small office tenants (professional services, insurance, real estate) still need physical space for client meetings and compliance.
National trends show Fort Worth and the Dallas-Fort Worth Westoplex shifting growth patterns, with secondary suburban markets capturing population and development as core northeast corridors hit land cost ceilings. The Columbia parallel: growth is spreading from downtown and Shandon into Lexington County (Chapin, Irmo, Blythewood) and southeast into Hopkins and Lower Richland. Land costs are lower, school districts matter more to families, and commute times are manageable with remote work flexibility.
For investors, watch for 1031 exchange opportunities in multifamily and retail. Cap rates remain compressed due to low inventory, but distressed properties (deferred maintenance, vacancy, tenant credit issues) will surface as insurance renewals hit and property taxes reset. Creative financing (seller carry, subject-to existing loans, lease-options) may unlock deals that conventional lenders will not touch at 7% rates.
The Realtor.com rental report highlights family renters (44.3% of all renter households) who are disproportionately minority households and find homeownership structurally out of reach due to the affordability gap. Long-term renters remain locked in place, unable to afford the market they already live in. For Columbia landlords, this means tenant retention is critical. Tenants who locked in $1,200/month rents two years ago cannot afford to move to market-rate $1,500 units, so they stay put and renew.
Rent growth is slowing as affordability stress builds. Vacancy rates are stable but rising insurance costs and property tax increases squeeze landlord margins. If you have not reviewed insurance coverage recently, do it now. Coastal carriers are exiting or raising premiums 20-40% on renewal. Bundling properties under a portfolio policy or switching to surplus lines carriers may save thousands annually.
Section 8 voucher demand remains strong in Richland County. HUD Fair Market Rents for Columbia support 2-bedroom vouchers around $1,100-1,200, which covers most working-class neighborhoods. If you have vacant units in qualifying zip codes, contact Richland County Housing Authority to get on the approved landlord list. Voucher tenants provide stable, government-backed rent with lower default risk than unsubsidized tenants in the same income bracket.
Tenant screening is tightening as eviction moratoriums end and courts process backlogs. Use a consistent screening process (credit, criminal, rental history, income verification at 3x rent) to avoid fair housing complaints. Document everything. One discrimination claim will cost more in legal fees than a year of rent.
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac updated condo project standards and property insurance rules, aiming to lower costs but creating new qualification hurdles. The changes allow greater leeway in replacement cost coverage (cash value on roofs, adjusted deductibles) but eliminate limited and streamlined review options starting August 3, requiring full project reviews in all cases. Minimum reserve funding thresholds rise from 10% to 15% of annual budgeted income by 2027.
For Columbia agents, this means condo associations that have not maintained adequate reserves will struggle to qualify for conventional financing. Expect HOA dues to rise as associations build reserves to meet the 15% threshold. Some projects will not qualify in the conventional bucket and will push buyers into non-QM loans or FHA (if the project is FHA-approved). The good news: GSEs are eliminating the 50% investor-owned unit cap, which helps investor buyers but does nothing for first-time homebuyers or downsizers looking for primary residences.
The National Association of Mortgage Brokers pushed back on the elimination of limited review for established condo projects, warning it could disqualify sound properties due to documentation challenges rather than actual risk. If you represent condo buyers or sellers, verify project eligibility early in the transaction. A contract that falls apart at underwriting due to condo certification issues wastes everyone's time and kills the deal.
Weichert Realtors Ray Covington agents were honored by the national franchise for outstanding 2025 performance, including Gracen Gantt (Executive Club), Ted Schrum (Executive Club), and Geoff Gleaton (Sales Achievement Certificate). Columbia Star recognition confirms local agents are closing deals despite market headwinds. If you are competing with these teams, know they have momentum and systems in place. Match their follow-up, marketing, and client communication or lose listings to them.
NAHB reports women in construction hit a record 1.34 million workers (11.2% of the industry), the highest share in two decades. Only 18% of management positions are held by women despite women representing the decision-makers who shape how homes function. Professional Women in Building notes the industry must recruit more women not just for representation but for bringing voices who understand household needs to the drafting table, jobsite, and boardroom. For Columbia builders and developers, this is a talent pipeline opportunity. Women leaving corporate jobs for construction careers bring project management, client relations, and operational skills that translate directly to homebuilding.
The median age of owner-occupied homes climbed to 42 years in 2024, up from 31 in 2005, with 47% of homes built before 1980. NAHB analysis shows the share of homes built in the past 14 years dropped from 18% in 2014 to 13% in 2024. This aging housing stock creates remodeling opportunities. For Columbia agents and contractors, target owners of 1970s-1980s homes in established neighborhoods (Shandon, Forest Acres, Rosewood, Dentsville) who need kitchen/bath updates, HVAC replacements, and roof work. These homeowners have equity, cannot afford to move at 7% rates, and will invest in aging-in-place improvements instead. Partner with remodelers, HVAC companies, and roofers to offer client referrals and capture a piece of the renovation spend.
Data compiled from 35 RSS sources. National trends localized for Columbia, SC market context. This brief is for informational purposes and does not constitute investment or legal advice.