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Today: 30-year mortgage rates hit a yearly high above 6.25% as the Iran conflict pushes the 10-year yield past 4.31%, pending home sales nationally posted their fifth consecutive positive week, and NAR published its latest insurance program risk report.
Mortgage rates crossed a critical threshold this week, breaking above 6.25% and trending toward 7% as geopolitical tensions drive bond yields higher. The 10-year yield closed above 4.31% for the first time since September 2025, pricing out all rate cuts and now pricing in a potential rate hike for 2026. Housing demand still growing as mortgage rates reach inflection point
For Columbia agents, this rate environment means preparing clients for affordability pressure. Historical housing data shows performance weakens when rates exceed 6.64% and deteriorates further past 7%. If you have buyers pre-approved at 6%, get them back to lenders now for updated numbers. Inventory in Richland County remains tight, so rate-sensitive buyers need to move quickly before competition thins out.
Purchase application data showed 12% year-over-year growth last week, but week-to-week growth cooled to 1%. The concern is consecutive weeks of rising rates typically produce negative weekly prints. For Columbia listings, this suggests the spring selling window is narrowing. If you have sellers considering listing in April or May, advise them to get on market now while purchase applications are still positive. Waiting until rates stabilize could mean missing the demand cycle entirely.
Pending home sales nationally hit 71,230 last week, up from 68,726 in 2025. That is the fifth positive week in a row. However, these sales were locked in when rates were lower. The next 30-60 days will show if demand holds above 6.25%. For Columbia agents working the Vista or Forest Acres markets, expect buyer hesitation to increase if rates stay elevated through April. Price competitively or plan for longer DOM (Days on Market).
Mortgage spreads remain near-normal at 1.97%, down from the 2.50%-2.80% range seen in 2023-2024. This is the only factor preventing rates from exceeding 7% again. If spreads widen due to the Iran conflict or further inflation concerns, Columbia buyers will face 7%+ rates with zero Fed relief priced in. That kills creative financing strategies relying on future refinances. Investors eyeing BRRRR (Buy, Rehab, Rent, Refinance, Repeat) deals in Five Points or near USC need to recalculate exit strategies assuming rates stay elevated through 2027.
NAR released its Insurance Program Risk Report this week, though content details are not available. Given the timing, this likely addresses E&O (Errors and Omissions) insurance claims trends following the commission settlement changes. NAR Insurance Program Risk Report
For Columbia agents, review your E&O coverage limits and claim history with your broker. The commission structure changes implemented in 2025 created new liability exposure around buyer representation agreements and compensation disclosures. If you have not updated your standard forms to reflect SCREC (South Carolina Real Estate Commission) requirements, do it now. Claims lag market changes by 6-12 months, so 2026 will likely show increased litigation around 2025 transactions.
NAR also published an update on the 2026 committee application process. Update on the 2026 Committee Application Process This is relevant for Columbia brokers looking to influence national policy on commission transparency, MLS data access, or fair housing enforcement. Committee seats fill quickly. If you want Greater Columbia Association of REALTORS representation on national committees, submit applications now.
Building permit data from Tulsa and Jamestown is not directly relevant to Richland County, but the pattern matters. Commercial renovation permits for healthcare facilities (Ascension St. John in Tulsa) signal ongoing institutional investment in medical real estate. Ascension St. John undergoing renovations
For Columbia investors, watch for similar healthcare-adjacent commercial opportunities near Prisma Health Richland or Lexington Medical Center. Fort Jackson's TRICARE population creates consistent demand for outpatient facilities and medical office space. If you have clients looking for NNN (Triple Net Lease) tenants, healthcare remains recession-resistant even in rising rate environments.
Residential building permits data from other markets is noise without Columbia-specific numbers. For actionable permit tracking, pull Richland County and Lexington County permit data directly from county offices or subscribe to local permit feeds. New construction in Blythewood, Irmo, and Chapin (Lake Murray submarkets) will show where builders are betting on growth despite higher rates. If permits are declining, that signals inventory constraints will persist into 2027.