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March 21, 2026
Today: 30-year fixed hit 6.53%, the highest since September 2025, as Iran war concerns push oil prices higher and central banks reconsider rate cuts. National new home sales fell to 3-year lows while inventory climbed 5.6% year-over-year. Builder confidence ticked up marginally to 38, but 37% of builders are cutting prices as affordability pressures continue to sideline buyers.
Mortgage rates spiked sharply this week, reaching 6.53% on Friday, the first day of spring, according to Mortgage News Daily. The average lender is now quoting over 6.5% for top-tier 30-year fixed rates, the highest level since September 3, 2025. After briefly dipping below 6% in late February, rates have reversed course on escalating oil costs and inflation concerns tied to the Iran conflict.
The Iran war is forcing global central banks to rapidly reassess the policy rate outlook. The Fed held rates steady for the second straight meeting, but Fed Funds Futures now price a 10% chance of a rate hike at the next meeting, according to Mortgage News Daily's MBS Morning commentary. The European Central Bank and Bank of England echoed this hawkish stance, citing energy prices as a reason for vanishing rate cut prospects and increasing hike risk. This coordinated pivot is reminiscent of past central bank pivots, and bond markets globally are repricing. The longer this conflict continues, the greater the risk of sustained inflation and higher rates for an extended period, according to HousingWire's analysis.
For Richland County and Lexington County, this rate environment means active listings need realistic pricing. Buyers who locked in sub-6% rates in February are now facing 50-plus basis points more in carrying cost. Sellers who listed in early March expecting spring momentum should reassess if they are priced for a 6.5%+ mortgage world, not the 6% window that just closed.
National new home sales dropped to a 3-year low in January, down double-digits year-over-year with prices down nearly 7%, according to Realtor.com's video update. Winter weather played a role, but weak buyer demand was the underlying driver. February pending sales edged up 1.8%, but that reflects the brief rate dip in late February, not the current trajectory.
Active inventory nationally was up 5.6% year-over-year for the week ending March 14, but new listings were down 1.4%, according to CNBC's spring housing market report. Homes are sitting longer because sellers are holding back, not because there is a wave of new supply. This means the inventory climb is driven by stagnation, not seller motivation. List prices have fallen for eight straight weeks nationally, and per-square-foot asking prices are at their lowest since Realtor.com began tracking in 2017. National median asking rents also hit a four-year low in February.
Builder confidence inched higher to 38 in March, up from a revised 37 in February, according to Mortgage News Daily's builder confidence report. That is still well below the breakeven level of 50. Current sales conditions rose one point to 42, prospective buyer traffic climbed three points to 25, and future sales expectations rose two points to 49. In March, 37% of builders reported cutting prices, up from 36% in February, with the average price reduction holding steady at 6%. Sales incentives remained at 64%, marking the 12th consecutive month above 60%. For Richland and Lexington County buyers, this means new construction deals are available. Contact builders directly and ask about incentives, rate buydowns, and concessions.
Multifamily built-for-rent starts jumped 18% in Q4 2025, with 91,000 rental units started out of 96,000 total multifamily starts, according to HousingWire's multifamily analysis. Rental product accounted for 95% of all multifamily starts in the quarter, one of the highest shares on record. Condo starts were flat at 6,000 units. Average unit size was 1,068 square feet, consistent with a market geared toward smaller, more affordable rental product. For Columbia investors, this reinforces that the multifamily pipeline tilts heavily to rentals, not for-sale condos. Any shift back toward for-sale multifamily will require changes in liability regimes or mortgage affordability.
No USC-specific articles today, but the national multifamily rental surge (95% of starts in Q4 2025 were built-for-rent) has direct implications for Five Points and off-campus housing. Developers are chasing income-producing assets, not for-sale condos. Unit sizes are trending smaller (1,068 square feet average), which fits the student housing profile. Fort Jackson PCS cycles remain a steady demand driver for military housing. Contact off-campus landlords to discuss pricing strategy ahead of fall semester leasing.
No deal flow-specific articles today. National inventory is up 5.6% year-over-year, but new listings are down 1.4%. Homes are sitting longer, not selling faster. This creates opportunity for buyers who can close quickly and for sellers willing to price aggressively. Watch for expired listings and price reductions in the Columbia MLS. Tax sales and foreclosure activity are not showing up in national feeds, so check Richland County and Lexington County courthouse postings directly.
Jonathan Rose Companies acquired a 126-unit affordable housing complex in Manhattan's Inwood neighborhood for $53 million, according to Commercial Observer. The deal includes a $19.7 million rehabilitation plan. This reflects ongoing commitment to preserving affordable housing, a theme that applies to Columbia as inventory constraints and regulatory barriers drive up costs.
Decron Properties secured $82.9 million in Fannie Mae refinancing for a 398-unit multifamily complex in Simi Valley, California, according to Commercial Observer. The five-year, fixed-rate loan is the lowest agency financing rate BWE has secured in more than three years. This signals that multifamily deals with strong fundamentals can still access competitive debt, even in a higher-rate environment. For Columbia investors, this means cap rate compression is possible if you can secure low-cost agency debt. Focus on properties with solid occupancy and credit-quality tenants.
SL Green Realty refinanced $2 billion of a $2.4 billion corporate credit facility at a lower rate, reducing borrowing costs by 25 basis points, according to Commercial Observer. The REIT extended maturity dates and reduced its cost of capital. For Columbia commercial investors, this demonstrates that high-quality credit can still negotiate favorable terms despite broader rate volatility. Work with lenders who understand your market and have appetite for stabilized assets.
No property management-specific articles today, but the multifamily rental surge (95% of starts were built-for-rent in Q4 2025) reinforces that rental demand is strong. National median asking rents hit a four-year low in February, which suggests downward pressure on pricing. For Columbia landlords, this means competitive pricing and concessions may be necessary to fill vacancies quickly. Tenant screening remains critical. Section 8 updates are not showing up in national feeds, so check South Carolina Housing Authority directly for policy changes.
Indiana passed House Enrolled Act 1001, a comprehensive bill to expand housing supply by rolling back regulatory barriers, according to NAHB. The bill streamlines zoning approvals for single-family homes, duplexes, and accessory dwelling units (ADUs), limits impact fees, and caps building permit fee increases. Regulations account for nearly 25% of the cost of a new single-family home, and many of those regulations can be tied to local rules. For Columbia, this is a model to watch. South Carolina could adopt similar measures to reduce development timelines and costs. Contact your local representatives and SCREC to discuss regulatory relief.
Michigan housing advocates are pointing to Austin, Texas, as a model for zoning reform, according to HousingWire. Austin added about 120,000 homes from 2015 to 2024, a 30% increase in housing stock. Median asking rent fell from $1,546 in December 2021 to $1,296 in January 2026. In inflation-adjusted terms, city rents fell 19% from 2021 to 2025. Key reforms included Vertical Mixed Use zoning, reduced parking requirements, ADU expansion, and elimination of minimum parking requirements. For Columbia, this demonstrates that supply-side reforms can meaningfully impact affordability. Watch SCREC and local zoning boards for policy changes.
The Senate passed the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act with an 89-10 vote, according to HousingWire's op-ed. The bill streamlines environmental reviews, modernizes manufactured housing rules, and restricts large institutional investors from buying single-family homes. However, the bill does not address housing as a workforce issue or create employer incentives to help employees with housing costs. For Columbia employers, consider offering housing assistance as a retention tool. Tax-advantaged downpayment savings accounts or employer matching programs could differentiate your recruiting.
NAR's new leadership under CEO Nykia Wright is driving a cultural shift, according to HousingWire's visit to NAR headquarters. Employees report harder work ethic and renewed focus on member advocacy. NAR has fought for legislative protections and industry interests behind the scenes, but members are drowning in email and missing the message. For Columbia agents, review NAR communications for regulatory updates and advocacy wins that impact your practice.
Judge Jeremy Kernodle of the Eastern District of Texas struck down a FinCEN anti-money laundering rule, ruling that FinCEN exceeded its statutory authority, according to HousingWire. This ruling could impact compliance requirements for real estate transactions involving cash buyers or foreign investors. Consult legal counsel on reporting obligations.
Judge Jamal Whitehead of U.S. District Court in Seattle denied Northwest MLS's motion to dismiss Compass's antitrust lawsuit, according to HousingWire. The lawsuit challenges NWMLS's listing policy, which does not have the same office exclusive carve-out as NAR's Clear Cooperation Policy. The ruling states that Compass plausibly alleges harm to competition. For Columbia agents, watch this case closely. MLS listing policies and Clear Cooperation rules could face further legal challenges.
Zillow's Best Time to List report found that late May is generally the optimal listing window nationally, when homes sold for 1.7% more (about $6,000 on a typical U.S. home), according to RISMedia. Realtor.com identified April 12-18 as this year's optimal window. However, timing varies by metro and sellers should not try to time the market. With the current rate spike, the spring window may be narrower than usual. For Columbia sellers, list now if you are ready, or wait until late April to catch the tail end of the spring surge. Do not wait for rates to drop. They may not.
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