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March 19, 2026
Today: 30-year mortgage rates hit 6.30%, the highest since December 2025, driven by Middle East tensions and Fed inflation concerns. New listings are down 1.4% nationally while active inventory remains up 5.6%, offering buyers more leverage. Virginia's commercial-to-multifamily zoning push died amid local control concerns, a cautionary tale for similar SC proposals.
Mortgage rates jumped to 6.30% this week, up 20 basis points in two weeks, after Fed Chair Powell signaled rate cuts are on hold until at least April 2027. Mortgage rates surged following elevated Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation data and crude oil spiking $6 per barrel on Middle East tensions. The Fed held rates at 3.5-3.75%, emphasizing persistent inflation in core goods and non-housing services. For active listings in Richland County, this means buyers who locked in consultations last week are now facing higher monthly payments. If you have deals in pipeline, contact those buyers immediately to discuss rate buydowns or seller concessions to keep transactions alive.
National inventory trends show active listings up 5.6% year-over-year, though growth has slowed compared to earlier in 2026. New listings fell 1.4% year-over-year as economic uncertainty from the Iran conflict holds sellers back. Days on market (DOM, time from listing to contract) increased by 4 days compared to last year, now sitting at 57 days nationally. Median asking prices dropped 2.3% year-over-year, the 21st consecutive week of flat or negative price growth. Price-per-square-foot fell 2.6%, the lowest on record since 2017, indicating real price declines rather than just a shift toward smaller homes. Columbia sellers sitting on overpriced listings should adjust expectations now. The combination of higher rates and growing inventory tips leverage toward buyers who can afford to wait.
Building permit data is due Thursday with expectations of continued softness. Watch for Richland County permit activity as a leading indicator of new construction competing with your resale listings 6-9 months out.
No USC-specific developments in today's feed, but rising mortgage rates affect Five Points rental property valuations. If you represent investors in student housing, recalculate cap rates (annual NOI divided by purchase price) assuming 6.30% financing. Properties that penciled at 5.99% rates three weeks ago may no longer meet investor return thresholds. For military housing around Fort Jackson, watch for PCS (Permanent Change of Station) cycle activity in late spring as assignments finalize. No rate change affects BAH (Basic Allowance for Housing) calculations, but rental property investors should model debt service at current rates before acquisition.
National foreclosure data shows Indiana posting the worst foreclosure rate in the country in new 2026 data, signaling distress spreading in Midwest markets. While SC foreclosure rates remain comparatively low, monitor Richland County courthouse auction calendars for emerging inventory. Contact investor clients now, as distressed inventory typically surfaces 90-120 days after rate spikes as overleveraged flips and rentals hit the market.
Building permits will be reported Thursday. No Richland County-specific data today, but national trends show permit activity softening. Expired listings and price reductions remain your best prospecting source in a rising rate environment. Scrub your MLS for listings that went live 60-90 days ago at asking prices based on 5.5-6.0% rate assumptions. Those sellers are watching DOM climb and need pricing reality checks.
Virginia's ambitious plan to allow multifamily housing by-right in commercially zoned areas died in the General Assembly after local governments objected to erosion of land-use control. Governor Spanberger's proposal would have converted underused strip malls and office corridors into apartments without case-by-case rezoning, targeting Virginia's 300,000-home shortage. The measure passed initial House and Senate votes but stalled on concerns about infrastructure planning and suburban traffic impacts. This is directly relevant to Columbia. If similar proposals surface in SC legislative sessions, expect suburban Lexington County municipalities to resist. For investors eyeing commercial-to-residential conversions, the Virginia failure means by-right pathways remain unlikely. Plan for traditional rezoning timelines and neighborhood opposition.
Meta signed a 10-year, 15,000-square-foot retail lease at 697 Fifth Avenue in Manhattan for a flagship Meta Lab store showcasing VR headsets and smart glasses. While this is a Manhattan deal, it signals corporate confidence in experiential retail formats. For Columbia commercial landlords with vacant retail in the Vista or Main Street districts, consider targeting tech or experience-driven tenants rather than traditional softgoods retailers. Median asking rent on Fifth Avenue is $2,550 per square foot, obviously irrelevant to Columbia, but the 10-year term and focus on brand presence over pure sales metrics is the takeaway. If you represent Vista landlords, pitch long-term leases to brands seeking regional presence, not just transactional retail.
Cap rates remain under pressure at current financing costs. A property generating $100,000 annual NOI that traded at a 6% cap rate ($1.67M) last year now requires a 7-7.5% cap to pencil for leveraged buyers at 6.30% debt. Sellers expecting 2025 pricing need to adjust or accept all-cash buyers only.
No Richland County rental data in today's feed. Nationally, the "lock-in effect" continues as homeowners with sub-4% mortgages delay moving, keeping rental demand elevated. For Columbia property managers, this translates to sustained occupancy in quality units, but also means tenant turnover remains low. If you manage single-family rentals, expect fewer move-outs than historical norms. Lease renewals are the priority. Price rent increases carefully; tenants trading 3.5% mortgages for 6.30% financing aren't leaving unless forced.
Section 8 and landlord-tenant law: no updates today. Watch SCREC (South Carolina Real Estate Commission) bulletins for any fair housing enforcement updates.
Midwest Real Estate Data moved to abandon the NAR membership requirement for MLS access, allowing partner groups to offer access to non-Realtor licensed agents. This follows the broader post-settlement trend of MLSs decoupling from mandatory NAR membership. For Columbia agents, this doesn't immediately affect SC MLS access rules, but it's part of the industry shift toward MLS-as-utility rather than Realtor exclusivity. If you're a broker managing a team, expect similar proposals in SC within 12-24 months. The NAR membership value proposition now rests entirely on education, advocacy, and forms, not MLS access.
A federal first-time homebuyer assistance proposal floated to use tariff revenues to fund up to 6% of purchase price toward closing costs or rate buydowns for FHA and VA buyers. On a $390,000 purchase, that's $23,400, enough to buy down rates by 0.50-1.00% and cover closing costs. This remains a proposal, not policy, but if enacted it would materially shift first-time buyer affordability in Columbia's sub-$400K market. Monitor for legislative movement. If passed, VA buyers at Fort Jackson and FHA buyers in the $250-350K range become significantly more competitive.
Appraisal changes: UAD (Uniform Appraisal Dataset) 3.6 format becomes mandatory for Fannie/Freddie sales on November 2, 2026. Lenders need to begin testing in Q2 2026 as underwriters will require 10% more time per file to analyze reports. For agents, this means longer underwriting timelines on fall closings. Factor an extra 3-5 days into contract timelines for transactions closing post-November 1.