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Today: 30-year fixed mortgage rates inched to a two-week low at 6.7%, existing home sales edged up 1.5% month-over-month but remain 2.2% below last year, and national inventory sits at 1.6 million units (4.8 months supply) while the first-time buyer share ticked up to 31%.
Existing home sales ran at a 3.99M annualized pace in September, beating the 3.95M forecast but still trailing last year's 4.08M by 2.2%. The month-over-month gain of 1.5% reflects contracts written when mortgage rates were near 6.7% in August. That rate environment is now outdated. Rates have since climbed above 7%, and the next round of sales data will show how buyers respond to that shift.
National inventory stands at 1.6 million units, up 4.6% year-over-year but still well below the 2 to 2.5 million range NAR considers normal. Months supply held at 4.8 months in September. Days on market are lengthening, giving buyers more negotiating power. For Clarke County, this translates to a market where price reductions and seller concessions are becoming standard tools to close deals. If you have listings sitting past 30 days, adjust pricing or offer rate buydowns.
The median U.S. sales price hit $417,500 in September, up 1.3% year-over-year. That's the 39th consecutive month of annual price increases, but the pace is slowing. Wage growth is now outpacing home price appreciation for the second year running, improving affordability incrementally. In Athens, where UGA salaries and entry-level professional wages anchor the market, this creates modest relief for first-time buyers if they can clear the financing hurdle.
First-time buyers represented 31% of September sales, up from 30% the prior month and year. The starter-home supply crunch is easing nationally, but local markets remain uneven. Athens benefits from older housing stock and neighborhoods within walking distance of campus, which keeps entry-level inventory more accessible than Sun Belt metros still working through new construction oversupply.
Mortgage rates moved to a two-week low, with the 30-year fixed creeping down to 6.7% as of October 13. Bond markets showed modest support after the 10-year Treasury yield approached 5.3%, a level that historically attracts buyer interest. CPI data released October 14 will determine whether this support holds. If inflation comes in hotter than expected, rates will reverse course quickly. If it's cooler, rates could extend recent gains. Either way, buyers sitting on the fence should lock rates now rather than wait for a trend that may not materialize.
HUD is signaling changes to the FHA 203(k) renovation program to expand its reach beyond the current 3,000 to 4,000 units per year. The standard 203(k), which allows buyers to roll major rehab costs into a single FHA-insured mortgage, has been hampered by a shortage of HUD-approved consultants. Deputy Assistant Secretary Matt Jones indicated the agency is exploring ways to address the consultant bottleneck while maintaining safeguards.
The Limited 203(k), which permits up to $75,000 in repairs financed into the mortgage, now allows up to four contractor draw requests instead of lump-sum payments. This change smooths cash flow for smaller projects and reduces contractor risk. For Athens, where older housing stock dominates neighborhoods near campus and downtown, the 203(k) product opens opportunities to finance both purchase and renovation in a single loan. Investors targeting distressed properties or buyers willing to take on fixer-uppers should familiarize themselves with the program now, as expanded consultant availability could increase deal flow in 2027.
Investment property buyers continue to face the gap between lender pre-approval amounts and realistic monthly carrying costs. A buyer earning $80,000 annually with $500 in monthly debt payments qualifies for roughly $285,000 at 6.7% with 3.5% down, but that assumes property taxes, insurance, FHA mortgage insurance, and vacancy periods fit within the 43% debt-to-income benchmark. In Clarke County, where property taxes and insurance costs are climbing, buyers should run numbers based on actual expenses, not best-case projections. Every $500 in monthly debt cuts roughly $66,000 from maximum purchase price.
Distressed property opportunities remain limited nationally, but Athens-area investors should watch for expired listings, FSBO properties, and estates where sellers need liquidity. The longer a property sits on the market, the more room there is for negotiation. Price reductions and cumulative days on market signal seller motivation more reliably than asking price alone.
Sun Belt multifamily markets are recovering from pandemic-era oversupply at uneven rates, with some metros returning to positive rent growth while others still absorb excess inventory. Non-QM loans climbed to 12% of production in September, up nearly 5 percentage points year-over-year, while ARM share hit 14%, its highest level since 2019. These shifts reflect lenders and borrowers adjusting to a higher-rate environment where traditional 30-year fixed financing doesn't pencil for many deals.
The Federal Reserve's September quarter-point rate hike complicates the outlook for multifamily investors. Cheap money fueled the Sun Belt construction boom, and more expensive capital will slow new starts, eventually tightening supply. For Athens, where student housing drives multifamily demand, this creates opportunity for well-located properties near campus as new construction slows. Cap rates remain compressed, but investors willing to underwrite conservatively and use creative financing structures (ARMs, seller financing, 1031 exchanges) can still find deals.
Florida's domestic net migration fell from 314,000 in 2022 to roughly 64,000 in the most recent data, an 80% decline from its pandemic peak. Texas still leads nationally with 76,000 net domestic migrants in 2024, down 44% from 136,000 in 2023. Migration patterns matter for Athens because UGA enrollment and faculty hiring create consistent demand independent of broader migration trends. The university's expansion plans and research park development support multifamily fundamentals even as Sun Belt metros work through oversupply.
NAR's existing home sales report reinforces the disconnect between lagging data and current market conditions. Closed sales in September reflect contracts written in August when mortgage rates were 6.7%. Rates are now above 7%, and October's data will show the impact. Agents relying on backward-looking reports to set expectations with clients are a month behind the market.
Servicing operations face mounting costs as non-performing loans run nine times more expensive than performing ones ($1,573 vs. $176 per loan annually). Exceptions, the manual work required to resolve issues automated systems can't handle, drive much of that cost. Every exception needs a named owner, a clear deadline, and visibility for the borrower. Shared inboxes where tickets disappear for weeks harm borrowers and inflate servicing costs. Lenders should define exceptions precisely, assign ownership, set deadlines tied to regulatory requirements, and make records visible to phone agents so borrowers get real updates instead of apologies.
Divorce refinances require equity buyouts that must be structured before settlement terms are finalized, not after. A spouse keeping the family home needs to qualify for the new mortgage on one income, and that solo qualification caps the buyout amount the refinance can fund. Preapproval avoids the scenario where a couple settles on a number, signs, and then discovers the remaining spouse doesn't qualify for a loan that large. Spousal or child support counts as income or obligation depending on which side of it the remaining spouse sits, and that moves qualifying numbers in either direction. Loan officers should offer divorce preapprovals proactively to attorneys and mediators as part of the settlement process.