Get tomorrow's brief in your inbox
Today: 30-year fixed hit 6.95% (highest since January 2025), national housing starts fell 2.6% in August with building permits down 2.7%, and pending sales inched up just 0.3% as rates climbed nearly 100 basis points since the Iran war started.
National housing starts dropped 2.6% in August to 1.275 million units annually, with building permits falling 2.7% to 1.394 million, per Census Bureau data. Single-family starts rose 7.6% month-over-month to 918,000, but year-to-date single-family permits are down 4.9%, signaling builder caution. For Clarke County, this means the new construction pipeline - already thin compared to metro Atlanta - will likely stay that way through year-end. If you have buyers waiting for new builds in Oconee or the Athens west side, set expectations now: builders are slowing production, and what's under construction today may be all that delivers before 2027.
Mortgage rates jumped to 6.95% this week, the highest since January 2025 and up nearly 100 basis points since the Iran war began in February, Freddie Mac reported. The 30-year fixed is now 70 basis points above last year. For Athens buyers, this wipes out any affordability gains from the modest price softening we saw this summer. A $300K home at 6.95% costs $140 more per month than at 6.26% a year ago. Adjust pre-approvals and reset buyer expectations immediately.
Pending home sales rose just 0.3% nationally in August, NAR data showed, and remain 4.7% below August 2025 levels. The South posted a 2.3% monthly gain, but annual pending sales are still down 3.8%. Clarke County inventory sits around 1.8 months (anecdotal; check MLS), which is still tight, but the fall window typically favors buyers. The "Best Time to Buy" lands in early October this year - about two weeks out. If you have fence-sitters, remind them that seasonal timing may matter more than waiting for rates to drop, because rates aren't dropping.
National housing completions fell 11.9% in August to 1.128 million units, with single-family completions down 10.4% to 816,000 annually, according to HUD. Builders are delivering fewer homes, which means fewer resale listings from move-up buyers. For Athens agents, this reinforces the inventory crunch. Scout expired listings, FSBOs, and price reductions aggressively. The new-home delivery slowdown means resale is the only game in town for the next 6-12 months.
Capital Insight acquired a 12-story mixed-use property at 511 Ninth Avenue in Manhattan's Hudson Yards through foreclosure auction for $68-71 million, Commercial Observer reported. The property, formerly a hotel-condo hybrid, went to special servicing after the owner defaulted. Not Athens-specific, but a signal: overleveraged mixed-use and hotel conversions are vulnerable in this rate environment. If you're advising clients on creative Athens deals (downtown loft conversions, Five Points mixed-use), stress-test the debt service coverage ratio (DSCR) at 7%+ rates before closing.
BiggerPockets covered small multifamily investing strategy, highlighting 2-4 unit properties as a "sweet spot" for independent investors due to residential financing (as low as 3.5% down with FHA) and stronger cash flow than single-family. Athens has limited small multifamily stock, but the UGA rental market makes duplexes and triplexes near campus particularly resilient. If you have investor clients sitting on the sidelines, remind them that small multifamily qualifies for owner-occupant financing if they're willing to house-hack. At 6.95%, a fourplex near campus with $2,400/month in rent from three units can still pencil with an FHA loan.
Builder sentiment remains muted due to elevated mortgage rates, rising construction costs, and affordability challenges, NAHB noted. Some economists now forecast negative housing starts through 2027, with Cotality Chief Economist Selma Hepp predicting a 2% drop in 2026 and 4% in 2027. HousingWire detailed that 80-90% of new home sales now require mortgage rate buydowns, squeezing builder margins. For Athens agents, this means if you're working with D.R. Horton, Meritage, or any active builder in Oconee, expect aggressive incentives (rate buydowns, closing cost credits) to continue. Sellers competing with new construction should price 3-5% below builder base prices or offer their own concessions.