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Today: 30-year fixed edged down 2 basis points to 6.67%, national home sales jumped 7% in July but new pending listings show just 0.3% growth signaling the bump won't last, and Trump administration is revisiting capital gains tax limits that haven't moved since 1997.
Mortgage rates held mostly steady this week. The 30-year fixed dropped 2 basis points to 6.67%, down from 6.69% last week, per Freddie Mac. That's still elevated compared to 6.58% a year ago. The Producer Price Index came in slightly cooler than expected Thursday, giving bonds enough relief to push rates to their lowest level in nearly four weeks at 6.69% for top-tier lenders.
For Clarke County, this means financing costs remain a headwind. The conflict in Iran is keeping oil prices volatile and inflation expectations elevated, which puts a ceiling on how low rates can go in the near term. The Fed is signaling a potential rate hike before year-end after holding rates in late July. Buyers adjusting pricing expectations around 6.5-7% rates should plan for this range to persist through fall.
National home sales data from Zillow shows sales up 7% in July, the strongest annual gain this year. But newly pending listings rose just 0.3% year-over-year, indicating the summer sales bump reflects contracts signed weeks earlier when rates were in the 6.5% range. July's oil price shock likely caused buyers to pause. For Athens, this means the relative affordability edge seen earlier this summer may disappear. U.S. home values are up 1.1% year-over-year, and the typical mortgage payment in July was 0.9% lower than last year, but August rates are now running higher, pushing payments above year-ago levels.
The Trump administration is revisiting capital gains tax rules on home sales. Current law allows homeowners to exclude up to $250,000 in gains ($500,000 for married couples), a limit unchanged since 1997. Home values have climbed over 260% since then, and 34% of homeowners now exceed the single-filer limit. By 2030, that could hit 56%, meaning most homeowners face a tax disincentive to move.
The administration is discussing indexing capital gains to inflation and updating the exclusion limit. This would require Congressional action, so passage before midterms is unlikely according to experts, but it's the latest in a string of proposals including Representative Craig Goldman's Don't Tax the American Dream Act (full exemption for 2+ year residents) and Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene's No Tax on Home Sales Act. All three bills remain in the House Committee on Ways and Means.
For Athens brokers: this won't change your August pipeline, but it signals growing bipartisan recognition that the capital gains lock-in effect is real. Clients sitting on $300K+ in equity and hesitating to move due to tax exposure should know this issue is getting legislative attention. Track the proposals, don't promise relief, but use it as a data point when counseling move-up buyers or downsizers.