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Today: National housing starts crashed 15.4% to a six-year low of 1.177 million units in May, single-family starts slipped 1.9%, and building permits fell below expectations, signaling a shrinking pipeline for the next 6-12 months. Multifamily construction collapsed 41.6%, and the Midwest remains the only region showing year-over-year growth.
National housing starts hit a six-year low in May at 1.177 million units (seasonally adjusted annual rate), down 15.4% from April's revised 1.392 million and down 8.7% year-over-year. Single-family starts dropped 1.9% month-over-month to 882,000 units and are down 6.7% year-over-year. The South saw the steepest regional decline, down 17% month-over-month and 15.4% year-over-year to 594,000 units. Source Source
For Athens-Clarke County, this means the new construction pipeline feeding inventory is drying up at the national level. Local builders should expect continued caution from national lenders, longer approval timelines, and tighter construction financing. If you have investor clients looking at pre-construction deals, factor in 12-18 month delivery delays and potential cost overruns. Builders are offering incentives and cutting prices to move stalled inventory, creating negotiation leverage for buyers with cash or strong financing.
Building permits fell 0.7% to 1.413 million units in May, missing the 1.427 million forecast. Single-family permits edged up 0.6% to 886,000 but remain 1.8% below year-ago levels. The permits data suggests this slowdown will continue, the pipeline is not refilling. Source
Contact active buyer clients now. The supply squeeze means existing inventory in Athens will hold value better than overbuilt markets, but new listing opportunities will be scarce. If you represent sellers with completed new construction, price it to move before the next round of inventory hits in Q4.
NAHB Chairman Bill Owens noted that builder confidence fell to 35 in June, remaining deeply negative. "Elevated mortgage rates, affordability challenges and cautious buyers continue to weigh on demand for new homes. Builders are offering incentives and cutting prices, but difficult market conditions are still limiting sustained momentum for new construction." Source
Athens takeaway: local buyer sentiment mirrors this national caution. Pre-qualify harder, extend closing timelines if needed, and use builder incentives (rate buydowns, closing cost credits) as negotiation tools. Sellers expecting peak pandemic pricing need to adjust or expect extended DOM (Days on Market).
The mortgage rate lock-in effect continues to suppress existing home sales. Compass economist Jonah Coste calculates that in 2026 these conditions are preventing 870,000 home sales nationally that would otherwise occur. The lock-in effect decays slowly at about 5.8% per year, meaning if rates stay at current levels (6.5% range), sales will gradually return to normal by 2029-2030. Source
For Clarke County agents: this is a three-year grind, not a quick recovery. Focus on move-up buyers with significant equity who can absorb payment increases, downsizers who will benefit from selling high-rate mortgages, and first-time buyers who have no lock-in. The 2010s generation of sub-4% borrowers is largely immobile until rates drop or life events force moves.
Multifamily construction collapsed 41.6% month-over-month in May to 284,000 units nationally, down 12.3% year-over-year. This is the sharpest single-month drop in the multifamily sector in recent memory and signals that the affordable housing pipeline, including student housing for Athens, is slowing dramatically. Source
Athens investor impact: student housing projects near UGA that were in the planning or permitting stage may be delayed or canceled. If you have clients holding land zoned for multifamily near campus, expect extended timelines before development pencils out. Conversely, existing multifamily properties in good condition near UGA will see less new competition for the next 18-24 months, which supports rent growth and occupancy.
Affordable housing starts are decelerating nationwide after peaking in 2023. Yardi Matrix projects affordable deliveries will drop from 94,873 in 2023 to 70,977 by 2027. Higher construction costs, elevated interest rates, and declining tax credit pricing have altered the economics of affordable housing development. Many projects now require additional subsidies, more complex capital stacks, or longer timelines. Some deals are being delayed, resized, or abandoned. Source
Clarke County opportunity: affordable housing inventory will remain tight. If you work with nonprofit developers or have clients interested in LIHTC (Low-Income Housing Tax Credit) deals, expect slower closings and more layers of financing. Property managers should prepare for sustained demand in the affordable segment.
The Midwest is the only U.S. region showing positive housing starts growth, up 3.7% month-over-month and 5.9% year-over-year to 196,000 units. Completions in the Midwest were up 29.7% month-over-month and 13.9% year-over-year. The South, West, and Northeast all saw declines. Source
Athens is in the South region, which saw the steepest declines. This is not a local Athens problem, this is a regional capital allocation problem. Builders and lenders are pulling back across the Sunbelt. If you have clients considering relocation to the Midwest for investment purposes, the data supports that pivot.
Gotham Organization filed plans for Phase 2 of its Innovative Urban Village affordable housing project in Brooklyn's East New York, with three new buildings totaling 599 permanently affordable units. The firm secured $270 million in construction financing for Phase 1 in April 2024 and is now advancing the full 2,000-unit vision. Source
Takeaway for Athens multifamily investors: large-scale affordable housing deals are still getting financed in major metros, but they require significant capital stacks and patient equity. If you have clients with 1031 exchange proceeds looking at multifamily, point them toward stabilized assets with existing cash flow rather than ground-up development.
New Oregon landlord laws took effect in June, including House Bill 4123 (prohibits landlords from disclosing tenants' immigration status and other personal information, with penalties equal to twice monthly rent for violations) and Senate Bill 1523 (requires landlords to accept payments via check or other commercially reasonable methods, banning forced digital-only payments). Source
Georgia landlords are not directly affected, but this signals the national trend toward increased tenant privacy protections and payment flexibility requirements. If you manage properties in Athens, review your lease language around payment methods and data handling now. Avoid collecting unnecessary tenant information (SSN, medical records, immigration docs) unless legally required for screening or compliance.
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